双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

CMIP6模式关于中国LAI对温度和降水变化敏感性的模拟能力评估
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中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心

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国家重点研发计划项目


Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the sensitivity of LAI to temperature and precipitation change over China
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International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    评估地球系统模式对气候和植被的模拟能力是利用地球系统模式进行气候变化、陆地生态系统、碳循环研究的基础。基于观测和遥感数据,本文评估了第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中18个全球耦合模式对中国生长季温度、降水和叶面积指数(Leaf Area Index, LAI)的模拟性能;采用多元线性回归模型,定量植被对温度、降水的敏感性,并评估CMIP6模式对植被敏感性在地理和气候空间上的模拟能力。研究结果表明,(1)大部分模式可较好地模拟生长季温度、降水和LAI的气候态空间分布特征,但普遍高估全国平均LAI,且各模式对气候和植被变化趋势的模拟结果存在较大偏差;(2)与观测数据相比,大多数模式可模拟出植被敏感性正负符号的空间分布特征,但模式对植被敏感性幅度及其在气候态空间的分布(即:与气候场的对应关系)的模拟能力仍有待进一步提高;(3)基于模式在生长季的温度、降水、LAI及其敏感性方面的综合排名,四个模拟性能最佳的模式分别为CanESM5-CanOE、INM-CM5-0、IPSL-CM6-LR和MPI-ESM1-2-LR。

    Abstract:

    Evaluation of climate and vegetation status in earth system models (ESMs) is fundamental to understanding climate change, terrestrial ecosystems, and the carbon cycle. In this study, the temperature, precipitation, and LAI in the growing season over China from eighteen ESMs of the Sixth International Coupled Model Comparison Project (CMIP6) were evaluated based on site observation and remote sensing data. Then, a multiple linear regression model was used to quantify the sensitivity of LAI to temperature and precipitation, and to evaluate the ability of the CMIP6 model to simulate the sensitivity of vegetation in geographical and climatic spaces. At last, the models with a better simulation performance were selected. The results show that (1) Most models can simulate the spatial distribution of temperature, precipitation, and LAI in the growing season, but there are obvious deviations in their mean value and change trends. (2) Compared with the observation, The simulation ability of LAI sensitivity to temperature and precipitation showed that the simulation of the positive region was better than the negative region, and the sensitivity of vegetation in ecotone was greater than that in China. There was a large deviation in the amplitude of vegetation sensitivity and its distribution in climate space (i.e., the corresponding relationship with climate field). (3) Comprehensively based on evaluations above, CANESM5-CanOE, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6-LR, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR have the best performance on simulations of climate and vegetation during the growing season in China.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-04-16
  • 最后修改日期:2023-04-21
  • 录用日期:2023-10-19
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-10-20
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