双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

2021年北极典型平流层爆发性增温事件研究与预报
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北京师范大学

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(42122037和41975047)Funded By National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grants 42122037 and 41975047)


Research and Prediction of Typical Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in the Arctic in 2021
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College of Global Change and Earth System Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing

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    摘要:

    本文选取了对我国2021年冬季寒潮事件可能有重要影响的2021年1月北半球平流层爆发性增温(SSW)事件为例,利用观测资料、再分析资料和预报模式,探讨了2021年1月的SSW事件的特征和机制并对其进行了预报研究。此次SSW事件(后简称为 “事件”)发生期间,北极平流层温度几天内上升近30℃,绕极西风环流减弱甚至在此次事件中出现了三次逆转为东风环流的现象。事件发生前期,太平洋海温和巴伦支-喀拉海(BK)海冰的出现异常的降低和减少现象;使用Eliassen-Palm (E-P通量)研究发现,这导致更多的对流层异常行星波活动上传到平流层;海温和海冰所导致的行星波活动的异常增多可能是导致此次SSW事件的主要因素。除此之外还发现,事件期间平流层位势高度正异常下传到对流层,与2021年1月中旬亚欧大陆出现的极端低温事件,存在显著的联系。最后,本文使用基于WACCM6模式和DART同化工具建立的平流层预报模型对此次事件进行了回报研究。该模型成功的预报了2021年1月发生的这次SSW事件,预报的温度大小和纬向风强度基本和观测结果一致。对回报试验的进一步研究发现,同化平流层温度、臭氧和水汽,减少预报初始场中平流层环流和温度误差,对准确预报这次SSW事件有重要的作用。初始场中没有同化平流层温度、臭氧和水汽的预报试验结果,与观测结果之间存在很大差异,甚至结果完全相反。

    Abstract:

    Taking the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) event in January 2021, which may have an important impact on the winter cold wave event in China, as an example, this study discusses the characteristics and mechanism of stratospheric sudden warming in January 2021 by using observation data, reanalysis data and prediction model. During the occurrence of this SSW event (hereinafter referred to as "event"),the Arctic stratospheric temperature rose by nearly 30 K in a few days, and the westerly winds weakened over the Arctic, and even reversed to the easterly winds three times in this event. In the early stage of the event, the Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and the Barents Kara Sea (BK) sea ice decreased abnormally; Through studying the anomalies of Eliassen-Palm (E-P flux) study, it is found that this leads to more tropospheric planetary wave propagate into the stratosphere; The increasing of planetary wave activity in the stratosphere caused by SST and sea ice may be the main factor to the SSW event. In addition, it is also found that the positive anomaly of stratospheric geopotential height propagated downward into the troposphere during the event, which is significantly related to the extreme cold event on the Eurasian continent in mid-January 2021. Finally, the stratospheric prediction model based on WACCM6 model and DART assimilation tool is used to study this event. The model successfully predicted the SSW event in January 2021. The predicted temperature and zonal wind intensity are basically consistent with the observation results. The results further show that assimilating stratospheric temperature, ozone and water vapor play an important role in accurately predicting the SSW event via reducing the errors of stratospheric circulation and temperature in the initial prediction field. If not assimilating stratospheric temperature, ozone and water vapor in the initial field, the results are very different from the observation, or even completely opposite.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-04-19
  • 最后修改日期:2022-08-16
  • 录用日期:2022-11-03
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-01-06
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