双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

顾及地形差异的高速公路路面结冰预报模型研究
作者:
作者单位:

成都信息工程大学

作者简介:

通讯作者:

基金项目:

中国气象局风云三号(02批)气象卫星地面应用系统工程项目(ZQC-J19193)


Study on Expressway Pavement icing prediction model considering terrain difference
Author:
Affiliation:

Chengdu University of Information Technology

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    基于四川省全省158个站点逐日气象观测数据以及2018~2020年道路气象灾害资料,对温度类、湿度类和降水类因子及它们的日变化复合特征共计14个因子采用相关性分析,研究了平原和山区地形下道路结冰模式的区别。结果表明,平均相对湿度与结冰的相关系数在两种地形分别为0.451和-0.451,山区和平原地形下的结冰模式差异主要体现在满足结冰所需水汽条件的因子的不同上。另外基于主成分降维、逐步回归和Lasso原理筛选特征,构建Logistic结冰预测模型,以五折交叉验证减小偶然误差,并使用准确率、ROC曲线和AUC值等标准对得到的模型进行评估。两种地形下三种模型表现排名一致,Lasso-Logistic模型效果最佳,平均准确率为86.98%,SR-Logistic次之,平均准确率为84.05%,PCA-Logistic最低,平均准确率为84.09%。在典型个例检验中,Lasso-Logistic在平原和山地预测准确率分别为86.15%和83.70%,在三种模型中最高。同时,引入气象因子随时间变化的复合特征能够提高模型的预测准确率,其中Lasso-Logistic、PCA-Logistic和SR-Logistic较它们仅包含日均值的模型的准确率提升了3.68%、3.00%和3.00%。研究结果证明,Lasso-Logistic结冰预测模型能有效对两种地形下的道路结冰事件进行预测,普适性较强,能够为道路结冰灾害的预警提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily meteorological observation data of 158 stations in Sichuan Province and the road meteorological disaster data from 2018 to 2020, the correlation analysis is used for a total of 14 factors including temperature, humidity and Precipitation Factors and their daily variation composite characteristics to study the difference of road icing modes under plain and mountainous terrain. The results show that the correlation coefficient between average relative humidity and icing is 0.451 and -0.451 in the two terrain respectively. The difference of icing mode in mountainous and plain terrain is mainly reflected in the different factors that meet the water vapor conditions required for icing. In addition, based on the dimensionality reduction of principal components, stepwise regression and lasso principle, the logistic icing prediction model is constructed, the accidental error is reduced by 50% cross validation, and the obtained model is evaluated by using the standards of accuracy, ROC curve and AUC value. The performance of the three models under the two terrains ranked the same. Lasso-Logistic model had the best effect, with an average accuracy of 86.98%, followed by SR-Logistic, with an average accuracy of 84.05%, and PCA-Logistic was the lowest, with an average accuracy of 84.09%. In the typical case test, the prediction accuracy of Lasso-Logistic in plain and mountainous areas is 86.15% and 83.70% respectively, which is the highest among the three models. At the same time, the introduction of the composite characteristics of meteorological factors over time can improve the prediction accuracy of the model. Among them, Lasso-Logistic, PCA-Logistic and SR-Logistic have improved the accuracy of the model by 3.68%, 3.00% and 3.00% compared with the model with only daily mean. The results show that lasso logistic icing prediction model can effectively predict road icing events under two kinds of terrain, has strong universality, and can provide reference for road icing disaster early warning.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-06-09
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-04
  • 录用日期:2023-05-11
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-07-04
  • 出版日期: