双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

一种针对模式预报场的精细化插值新方法研究
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国家气象中心

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国家重点研究发展计划项目(2021YFC3000903,2017YFC1502005)和中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z032)、中国气象局重点创新团队(CMA2022ZD04)、国家气象中心预报员专项(Y202132)共同资助。


A new method of fast refined interpolation for model forecast fields
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National Meteorological Center

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    摘要:

    随着智能网格预报业务的不断深入发展,为了不断提高网格预报产品的时空精度和准度,同时让网格和站点预报产品保持一致性,通过研究提出一种既考虑了静态真实地形又考虑了大气动态垂直变率的快速插值方法(Fast Refinement Interpolation, 简称FRI),并选择2022年1月1日到2022年3月31日的ECMWF和CMA-GFS、CMA-MESO三个模式的3-36h预报产品作为试验数据,开展了个例天气过程试验、FRI参数选取试验和长期插值检验对比,从长期插值检验和个例试验来看,FRI方法相对双线性插值方法具有明显优势,空间上,FRI方法能提高近地面2m气温的空间插值精度,插值结果更加符合地形变化情况,时间上,FRI方法较双线性插值方法的2m气温插值结果准确率明显提高,特别是在具有复杂下垫面的中西部地区。方法中的修正参数还能被作为检验模式三维预报场垂直变率的一种指标。FRI方法插值快速高效,具有明确的物理解释意义,它的提出为更精准的预报近地面气象要素提供了重要理论支撑。

    Abstract:

    With the continuous development of higher resolution and more accuracy grid forecasting operation, the spatial and temporal accuracy and precision of grid forecast products need to be continuously improved. To maintain the compatibility between grid and site forecast , a fast refinement interpolation (FRI) method which takes into account both the static real terrain and the dynamic atmospheric vertical variation process was investigated. In this study, 3-36h forecast products for three models (ECMWF, CMA-GFS and CMA-MESO) from January 1, 2022 to March 31, 2022 were selected as experimental data. Individual weather process tests, FRI parameter selection tests and long-term interpolation test comparisons were conducted. From long-term interpolation tests and individual case trials, the FRI method has a clear advantage over the bilinear interpolation method. From the spatial perspective, the FRI method can improve the spatial interpolation accuracy of 2m temperature above the ground and the results are more consistent with the topographic variation. From a temporal perspective, the FRI method has significantly improved the accuracy of the 2m temperature interpolation results compared to the bilinear interpolation method, especially in the western region with complex subsurface. The loss parameter in the method can also be used as an indicator to check the 3D atmospheric vertical variability of the model product. The FRI method is fast and efficient and has a clear physical meaning, which provides an important theoretical support for more accurate reflection of near-surface meteorological forecast information.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-06-24
  • 最后修改日期:2023-02-06
  • 录用日期:2023-02-28
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-03-31
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