双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

数值模式降水预报OTS订正法的实现技术研究
作者:
作者单位:

福建省灾害天气重点实验室

作者简介:

通讯作者:

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC1506905,福建省自然科学基金项目2021J01457、2022J011078,福建省灾害 天气重点实验室开放课题2021KFKT05


Research on the Technology of Realizing OTS Correction Method for Numerical Model Precipitation Forecast
Author:
Affiliation:

Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    本文以ECMWF模式插值到站点的逐12 h累积降水预报的订正试验为例,以福建及周边共4个省(市)为研究区域,详细介绍了福建省气象台在实现最优TS评分(Optimal Threat Score,OTS)订正法时引用或首创的三项技术,并与同类技术进行对比。结果表明:1)用3年期准对称滑动窗口取样法采集训练样本计算OTS订正阈值,其效果优于取之前3年的当季样本的取样方法;2)OTS订正阈值F1(即消空阈值)的大小与最高2 m温度密切相关,随着温度升高,消空阈值先变大后减小。相比不分组的方案,基于最高2 m温度预报分组计算消空阈值的方案能同时降低小雨的空报率和漏报率,使ETS评分提高5.0%~8.2%;3)先用反距离加权插值法对模式降水预报进行插值,再应用OTS订正法对降水预报进行订正,其效果优于先用最邻近点插值法对模式降水预报进行插值,再应用OTS订正法对降水预报进行订正。

    Abstract:

    Taking the correction experiment of ECMWF model station forecast of 12 h cumulative precipitation as an example, taking Fujian, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Shanghai as the research area, three technologies cited or initiated by Fujian when realizing the optimal threat score (OTS) correction method are introduced in detail, and compared with similar technologies. The results are summarized in the following points: 1) The 3-year quasi-symmetric sliding window sampling method is used to collect training samples to calculate the OTS correction threshold, and the effect is better than that of the sampling method of collecting the samples from the same season in the previous 3 years. 2) The magnitude of the OTS correction threshold F1 (i.e. elimination threshold) is closely related to the magnitude of 2 m temperature. As the temperature rises, the elimination threshold first increases and then decreases. Compared with the modeling scheme without grouping, the grouping modeling based on the maximum 2 m temperature forecast can obtain the elimination threshold under different temperature conditions, which can simultaneously reduce the false alarm ratio and missing ratio of light rain, and improve the equitable threat score of light rain by 5.0%~8.2%. 3) The effect of the first scheme, which is to use the inverse distance weighted interpolation method to interpolate the model precipitation forecast, and then use the OTS correction method to correct the precipitation forecast, is better than that of the second scheme, which is to use the nearest neighbor interpolation method to interpolate the model precipitation forecast, and then use the OTS correction method to correct the precipitation forecast.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-07-03
  • 最后修改日期:2023-07-19
  • 录用日期:2023-08-17
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-09-06
  • 出版日期: