Abstract:In this study, three model perturbation schemes, the stochastically perturbed parameter scheme (SPP), stochastically perturbed physics tendency (SPPT), and multi-physics process parameterization (MP), were used to represent the model errors in the regional ensemble prediction systems (REPS). To study the effects of different model perturbation schemes on Typhoon forecasting, three sensitive experiments using three different combinations (EXP1: MP, EXP2: SPPT + SPP, and EXP3: MP + SPPT + SPP) of the model perturbation schemes were set up based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-V4.2 model for the Typhoon "Kompasu" on the 18th of 2021. The results show that for typhoon forecasting, ensemble forecasting experiments could simulate the process of typhoon intensification and the path of typhoon, and the simulation result of EXP3 was the best. The path bias of EXP3 was the smallest of the three ensemble forecast experiments with an average value of 52.8 km, while the values of CTRL, EXP1 and EXP2 were 61.8, 54.4 and 65.7 km, respectively. For the perturbation energy, the perturbation energy of the three sets of ensemble prediction experiments were larger than the CTRL. The perturbation energy of EXP3 developed the fastest, and the perturbation energy was the largest. The Brier scores of the three sets of experiments improved the forecast results compared to the CTRL, and the Brier score values of EXP3 were the most improved of the three sets of experiments, with EXP1 and EXP2 showing improvements of 45% and 48.76% relative to the CTRL, while EXP3 was able to reach 70%. The forecasts of EXP2 and EXP1 were comparable, and EXP3 had improved the forecasts compared to EXP1 and EXP2, and its improvement rate reached 57.5% and 40% relative to EXP1 and EXP2.