Abstract:Under the background of global warming, floods and droughts occur frequently in summer over northeastern China, leading to severe consequence to human and natural systems. However, the current seasonal prediction of summer precipitation over northeastern China is still low, far from meeting the needs of disaster prevention and reduction. The precipitation during the rainy season over northeastern China is mainly concentrated in midsummer (July and August), and its interannual variability is comparable to that of interdecadal variability. This study focuses on analyzing the predictive role of interannual variability of soil temperature in the interannual variability of midsummer precipitation over northeastern China. This study found a significant negative correlation between the interannual variability of midsummer precipitation over northeastern China and the interannual variability of spring soil temperature over central and eastern Europe, as well as a significant positive correlation with the interannual variability of spring soil temperature over the eastern Qinghai Tibet Plateau and northeastern West Asia. The abnormal soil temperature in the key areas in spring corresponds to the abnormal soil temperature in the downstream region during the midsummer, which leads to abnormal atmospheric circulation in East Asia during the midsummer. The upper level westerly jet is strong and northward, and the western Pacific subtropical high is northward, resulting in enhanced water vapor convergence and upward movement over northeastern China, leading to increased precipitation in the midsummer. A seasonal prediction model for the interannual variability of spring soil temperature over central and eastern Europe, eastern Qinghai Tibet Plateau, and northeastern West Asia was established to predict the interannual variability of summer precipitation over northeastern China. The TCC of the Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation can reach a maximum of 0.64 and hindcast for the period of 2012 -2021 can reach a maximum of 0.78 in the GLDAS-Noah, ERA5, and CRA data sets, indicating that spring soil temperature plays a key role in predicting the interannual component of midsummer precipitation over northeastern China. The research results can provide a scientific basis for improving the prediction of summer precipitation over northeastern China, and can be easily applied to actual prediction.