双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

春季土壤温度在中国东北盛夏降水年际分量预测中的关键作用
作者:
作者单位:

1.湖南工商大学;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(72088101),国家重点研发计划(2018YFA0606501)


The critical role of spring soil temperature in predicting interannual variability of midsummer precipitation over northeastern China
Author:
Affiliation:

Center for Monsoon System Research,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    全球变暖背景下,中国东北夏季洪涝干旱灾害发生频繁,对人类和自然系统造成严重影响。但是,目前东北夏季降水预测水平较低,远不能满足防灾、减灾的需求。中国东北汛期降水主要集中在盛夏(7-8月),其年际变率与年代际变率相当。本文聚焦在分析春季土壤温度在中国东北盛夏降水年际分量预测中的作用。研究发现中国东北盛夏降水年际分量与欧洲中东部春季土壤温度年际分量存在显著负相关关系、与青藏高原东部和西亚东北部春季土壤温度年际分量存在显著正相关关系。春季关键区土壤温度异常对应下游地区盛夏土壤温度异常,从而引起东亚盛夏大气环流异常,高空西风急流偏强偏北、西太平洋副热带高压偏强偏北,进而造成中国东北水汽辐合与上升增强,引起中国东北盛夏降水增强。进一步采用欧洲中东部、青藏高原东部和西亚东北部春季土壤温度年际分量建立了中国东北盛夏降水年际分量的季节预测模型,1979-2021年留一法交叉检验时间相关系数在GLDAS-Noah、ERA5 和CRA 3套数据中最高可达0.64,2012-2021年的后报试验时间相关系数在3套数据中最高可达0.78,表明春季土壤温度在中国东北盛夏降水年际分量预测中起到关键作用。研究成果能够为提高中国东北夏季降水预测提供科学基础,并易于应用到实际预测。

    Abstract:

    Under the background of global warming, floods and droughts occur frequently in summer over northeastern China, leading to severe consequence to human and natural systems. However, the current seasonal prediction of summer precipitation over northeastern China is still low, far from meeting the needs of disaster prevention and reduction. The precipitation during the rainy season over northeastern China is mainly concentrated in midsummer (July and August), and its interannual variability is comparable to that of interdecadal variability. This study focuses on analyzing the predictive role of interannual variability of soil temperature in the interannual variability of midsummer precipitation over northeastern China. This study found a significant negative correlation between the interannual variability of midsummer precipitation over northeastern China and the interannual variability of spring soil temperature over central and eastern Europe, as well as a significant positive correlation with the interannual variability of spring soil temperature over the eastern Qinghai Tibet Plateau and northeastern West Asia. The abnormal soil temperature in the key areas in spring corresponds to the abnormal soil temperature in the downstream region during the midsummer, which leads to abnormal atmospheric circulation in East Asia during the midsummer. The upper level westerly jet is strong and northward, and the western Pacific subtropical high is northward, resulting in enhanced water vapor convergence and upward movement over northeastern China, leading to increased precipitation in the midsummer. A seasonal prediction model for the interannual variability of spring soil temperature over central and eastern Europe, eastern Qinghai Tibet Plateau, and northeastern West Asia was established to predict the interannual variability of summer precipitation over northeastern China. The TCC of the Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation can reach a maximum of 0.64 and hindcast for the period of 2012 -2021 can reach a maximum of 0.78 in the GLDAS-Noah, ERA5, and CRA data sets, indicating that spring soil temperature plays a key role in predicting the interannual component of midsummer precipitation over northeastern China. The research results can provide a scientific basis for improving the prediction of summer precipitation over northeastern China, and can be easily applied to actual prediction.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-07-22
  • 最后修改日期:2023-06-01
  • 录用日期:2023-08-29
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-08-31
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