双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

MJO对2020年夏季中国东部持续性降水的维持作用
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南京信息工程大学大气科学学院

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(42175030)和(41930969)


Prolonged Effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the Persistent Rainfall over Eastern China during 2020 Summer
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Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science Technology,Nanjing,China,210044

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    摘要:

    本文利用美国NOAA的CMORPH降水和NCEP的CFSv2再分析资料、欧洲中心ERA-5再分析数据、Wheeler和Hendon的MJO指数等资料和敏感性数值试验分析了MJO对2020年夏季中国东部持续性降水的影响机制。通过相关、回归、波源分析等方法发现:1)与往年相比,2020年夏季风雨带在我国华南和长江中下游地区长时间维持,使得该地区季风降水具有明显的极端性特征;2)同时,我国东部大气中高层位势高度出现负异常,伴随着水汽辐合和低层大气不稳定,均有利于2020年夏季强降水的维持;3)2020年夏季MJO活跃于1、2位相,其振幅在10~30天具有显著的周期。MJO在非洲和印度洋产生显著的Rossby波源,该波源激发的波列沿急流传播,造成了我国东部位势高度负异常的维持,同时也有利于我国东部夏季降水的维持;4)通过敏感性试验进一步验证,MJO的在10~30天的信号有利于在我国东部500 hPa上空形成负的位势高度异常,有利于该区域降水增加。

    Abstract:

    Using the precipitation derived by the CPC MORPHing technique (CMORPH) of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 reanalysis (CFSv2), ERA-5 reanalysis obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index of Wheeler and Hendon, effects of MJO on the rainfall persistence over eastern China in the summer of 2020 were analyzed. Based on the analyses of correlation, regression and wave source, three major conclusions were obtained as follows. 1) Compared with rainfall of the previous 21 years, the summer precipitation over eastern China in 2020 was extremely strong. This is because the summer monsoon rain belt has maintained for a very long time over southern China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 2020. 2) Meanwhile, a negative geopotential height anomaly in the middle and upper atmosphere, with the water vapor convergence between 1000-300 hPa and the instability at the lower levels, maintained over eastern China. Thus, the atmospheric circulation was in favor of the prolonged rainfall in the 2020 summer. 3) During this period, MJO was abnormally active in its phases 1 and 2 with significant period on 10-30 days, which indicates that MJO convective centers were sustained over eastern Africa and western Indian Ocean. Therefore, significant Rossby wave sources were found over eastern Africa and western Indian Ocean, which is consistent with the Gill mode. Finally, a Rossby wave train was excited at the sources and transported by the jet stream, and then induced the negative geopotential height anomaly over eastern China. Due to the sustain of the MJO in its phases 1 and 2, the negative geopotential height anomaly over eastern maintained and prolonged the rainfall in this region during 2020. The sensitivity experiments further prove that the 10-30-day signal is in favor of the formation of the negative anomaly of 500-hPa geopotential height and the positive anomaly of precipitation over eastern China.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-07-22
  • 最后修改日期:2022-10-14
  • 录用日期:2023-02-20
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-02-24
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