双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

冬季北半球对流层极涡天气型的长期变化特征及其成因
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南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室

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国家自然科学基金


Long-term Variability and Causes of Tropospheric Polar Vortex over Northern Hemisphere in Winter
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Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters CICFEMD / Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education KLME / Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change ILCEC,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

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    摘要:

    本文首先基于1979-2019年ERA5逐日再分析数据集,采用自组织映射(SOM)神经网络方法对冬季北半球对流层极涡进行客观分型,分析了极涡天气型的时间变化特征,揭示了冬季北半球极涡天气型长期变化的成因。结果表明:(1)根据极涡中心位置,极涡可分为绕极型、偶极型、偏欧亚型和偏北美型,其中绕极型和偶极型为主导环流型。绕极型和偶极型的出现频次分别呈现显著减少和增多的趋势,并具有明显的年际和年代际变化;(2)绕极型的长期减少和偶极型的长期增加主要是由于北极地区快速升温导致北半球中高纬度区域间的经向温度梯度不断减小,大气斜压性减弱,进而引起绕极西风环流减弱,使得北半球极涡的强度减弱,极涡极易分裂。随后基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中一个海气耦合模式(CESM2)的工业革命前参照试验(piControl)和CO2浓度每年增加1%的强迫试验(1pctCO2)数据集,采用上述同样的方法进一步探讨了极涡绕极型和偶极型的长期变化与全球增暖的关系,发现无论在piControl还是在1pctCO2试验中绕极型和偶极型极涡仍为主导环流型,但在piControl试验中绕极型和偶极型的出现频次无显著变化趋势,而在1pctCO2试验中绕极型和偶极型则分别表现为显著减少和增多的趋势,进一步验证了观测中这两类极涡天气型的长期变化与全球增暖密切有关。

    Abstract:

    Based on the ERA5 daily reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019, the self-organizing mapping (SOM) analysis is performed to objectively classify tropospheric polar vortex over the northern hemisphere in winter, analyze the temporal variation characteristics of the polar vortex weather pattern, and reveal its causes of the long-term variation. Results are shown as follows: (1) According to the center position of the polar vortex, it can be divided into circumpolar type, dipole type, Eurasian type and North American type, in which the circumpolar and dipole types are the dominant circulation types. The circumpolar and dipole types show a significant decreasing and increasing trend respectively, with obvious interannual and interdecadal variability. (2) The long-term decrease of the circumpolar type and the long-term increase of the dipole type are mainly due to the rapid warming of the Arctic region, which leads to the continuous reduction of the meridional temperature gradient and the weakening of baroclinicity between the middle and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The weakening of the circumpolar westerly circulation weakens the strength of the polar vortex in the northern hemisphere, which makes it very easily to split. Then, based on the data of the pre-industrial control simulation (piControl) and the simulation forced by a 1% /yr CO2 increase (1pctCO2) with Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model (CESM2) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), SOM is also used to further explore the relationship between the long-term variability of circumpolar and dipole type and global warming. It is found that the circumpolar and dipole types are still the dominant circulation types in piControl and 1pctCO2. The circumpolar and dipole types have no significant variability trend in piControl, but show a significant decreasing and increasing trend respectively in 1pctCO2, which further verifies that the long-term variabilities of two polar vortex weather patterns under observation are closely related to global warming.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-09-08
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-05
  • 录用日期:2023-05-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-05-15
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