双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

CMA-MESO对2020年夏季四川盆地及周边降水预报性能的评估
作者:
作者单位:

1.重庆市气象科学研究所;2.重庆市气象台;3.中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心

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基金项目:

国家重点基础研究规划项目,省自然科学基金,其它


Evaluation of the precipitation forecast performance of CMA-MESO in Sichuan Basin and the surrounding areas in the summer of 2020
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences;2.Chongqing Meteorological Observatory;3.CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre

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    摘要:

    利用2020年夏季(6~8月)CMA-MESO逐日08时(北京时)起报的12~36 h逐时降水预报数据和地面–卫星–雷达三源融合逐时降水产品,着眼于小时尺度降水特征,细致评估了CMA-MESO对四川盆地及周边地区的降水预报性能。结果表明,CMA-MESO较好把握了夏季降水的空间分布特征,即小时平均降水量和降水频率的大值区位于四川盆地西部、北部和东部的高海拔山区,而降水强度大值区主要位于山脉迎风坡一侧,但CMA-MESO预报的降水量和频率大值区位置较观测偏南。CMA-MESO合理描述了研究区域内降水量和频率峰值时间位相自西向东逐步滞后的特征,能够把握区域平均的降水量和频率清晨主峰、傍晚次峰的双峰形态以及降水强度的单峰特征,但预报的降水日变化位相超前于观测。CMA-MESO预报的逐时降水量均大于观测,明显的降水量预报正偏差发生于夜间21~03时和午后至傍晚(14~20时),分别由一般性降水(0.1~10 mm h?1)预报偏差和强降水(≥10 mm h?1)预报偏差主导,其偏差大值区分别位于青藏高原东南缘至四川盆地西部和四川盆地以东、以南地区,模式对热力和动力场的预报偏差结合地形的影响是降水量预报偏差的成因。

    Abstract:

    Based on hourly precipitation forecast data with lead time of 12–36 h for CMA-MESO staring at 08:00 BT and hourly gauge-satellite-radar merged precipitation products in the summer (June to August) of 2020, the performance of CMA-MESO for precipitation forecast in Sichuan Basin and the surrounding areas is thoroughly evaluated in terms of hourly precipitation characteristics. The results show that CMA-MESO can capture the spatial distribution characteristics of summer precipitation. The observed larger values of hourly mean precipitation amount and precipitation frequency are located in the high altitude mountains in the west, north and east of Sichuan Basin, and the observed larger values of precipitation intensity are mainly located on the windward slope of the mountains, but the large centers of forecast precipitation amount and precipitation frequency are located in the south of observations. CMA-MESO reasonably reproduces the diurnal variation of summer mean precipitation which is the eastward-delayed diurnal peak phase of precipitation amount and precipitation frequency in the study region, the bimodal pattern with the diurnal peak in the morning and the sub-peak in the evening of the regional averaged precipitation amount and precipitation frequency and the single diurnal peak of the regional averaged precipitation intensity. However, the diurnal variation phase of forecast leads that of observations. The forecast hourly precipitation amount is larger than observations, and obvious positive deviations mostly occur at night (21:00–03:00 BT) and from afternoon to evening (14:00–20:00 BT), which are mainly contributed by forecast deviations of general rainfall (0.1–10 mm h?1) and heavy rainfall (≥10 mm h?1) respectively, and the large deviations are located from the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau to the western Sichuan Basin and in the east and south of Sichuan Basin respectively. The forecast deviation of thermal field and dynamic field combined with the influence of topography is found to be the reason for the forecast deviations of rainfall amount.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-09-09
  • 最后修改日期:2023-04-17
  • 录用日期:2023-04-28
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-07-07
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