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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

基于累加气候概率的FSS检验方法对多模式短时暴雨预报的评估
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浙江省气象科学研究所

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Forecast Evaluation of Short-term Heavy Precipitation from Operational Models by Fractions Skill Score Method Based on the Cumulative Climatological Probability
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Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences

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    摘要:

    为深入认识数值天气模式强降水精细化预报性能,本文以短时强降水多发的浙江省2019年5到10月降水为例,采用分数技巧评分(Fractions Skill Score,简称FSS)邻域检验方法,评估了6个业务模式短时降水预报性能,重点探讨了各模式短时暴雨预报能力及天气背景的影响?结果表明:(1)基于站点降水的累加气候概率,确定了短时小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨和大暴雨的预报技巧评分阈值各为0.583、0.522、0.506、0.502和0.500,改进并实现了FSS方法对长时间序列各等级降水预报技巧尺度的综合评估。(2)只有上海中尺度区域数值预报业务系统(CMA-SH9)和浙江中尺度区域数值预报业务系统(CMA-ZJ3和CMA-ZJ9)的暴雨预报平均评分达到预报技巧,相应技巧尺度为159、159和183 km;这3个产品共有约6成预报达到技巧评分,其技巧尺度累积频率从3km至183km可增幅近50%,这种尺度选择性评价可为不同尺度下产品应用提供参考?(3)不同天气背景下各模式预报性能差异明显?台风类、梅雨类和弱天气尺度强迫类短时暴雨预报的最优模式分别是欧洲中期天气预报中心全球预报模式、CMA-SH9和CMA-ZJ3,各技巧尺度为27、99和135km,模式产品使用中需分类区别对待。

    Abstract:

    To insight the performance of numerical weather prediction model on refined heavy rainfall, a neighborhood verification method named Fractions Skill Score (FSS) is introduced to examine the capability of six operational models on 3h-accumulated precipitation during the warm season in 2019 in Zhejiang Province, with particular focus on short-term torrential rain and the impacts of different weather backgrounds. The results show that: (1) Based on the cumulative climatological probability of station 3h-accumulated precipitation, the FSS method is improved by determining the skill score thresholds for 5 grades precipitation with thresholds of 0.1, 3.0, 10.0, 20.0 and 50.0 mm/3h as 0.583, 0.522, 0.506, 0.502, and 0.500, respectively, and applied in the assessment of their prediction skill scales in the long time series. (2) The regional models outperform the global models in heavy rain forecasts, only the mean scores of Shanghai Regional Numerical Weather Prediction System (CMA-SH9) and Zhejiang Regional Numerical Weather Prediction System (CMA-ZJ3 and CMA-ZJ9) achieve the forecast skills for torrential rain, and their corresponding skill scale is 159, 159, and 183 km. There are about 60% of forecasts in these models achieve the prediction skills, and the cumulative frequency of the skill scale is increased by nearly 50% from 3km to 183km. This scale-selective evaluation result can provide a reference for the application of model products at different scales. (3) The differences in the models performance of precipitation forecasts under various weather backgrounds are obvious. The best model for predicting torrential rain under the background of tropical cyclones, Mei-Yu fronts and weak-synoptic forcing is the Global Forecast Model from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC-GFS), the CMA-SH9 and the CMA-ZJ3, with skill scales as 27, 99, and 135 km. Therefore, the application of model products should be treated differently in terms of weather background type.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-09-09
  • 最后修改日期:2023-04-11
  • 录用日期:2023-04-23
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-28
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