双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

基于集合预报的浙江省积层混合云人工增雨数值模拟研究
作者:
作者单位:

1.浙江省气象台;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴重点试验室LACS

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基金项目:

41875172 和 42075192 浙江省气象科技计划项目 2021YB04 和2021ZD05


Numerical Simulation of Convective-Stratiform Mixed Clouds Enhancement in Zhejiang Province Based on Ensemble Forecasting
Author:
Affiliation:

1.2. Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory

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    摘要:

    目前人工増雨催化数值模拟研究较少考虑环境场误差对模拟效果的影响,结论往往具有很大的不确定性。有鉴于此,本文将初始场扰动集合预报技术与包含催化模块的柱状云模式进行单向耦合(One Way Coupling),利用中尺度模式所提供包含环境场扰动误差的多组热力、微物理量廓线实时驱动柱状云模式,对2022年1月23日浙江省积层混合云降水过程进行多成员、单/多格点AgI催化数值试验,尝试从概率的角度探讨最佳播撒方案以及对应的增雨潜力。从单站(杭州站)的模拟效果来看,23日1500UTC时在3.6km高度(-5.2℃)处使用AgI(催化剂量为1.2×10-7 ~1.2×10-4g/kg)播撒时所有集合成员均能够取得正増雨效果,其中采用1.2×10-5g/kg剂量时増雨率最大,所有成员的均值为4.67%,99%分位数为7.77%。在单点模拟中,初始场扰动对于过量播撒是否导致减雨的判断有很大影响,例如,播撒剂量增加至1.2×10-2g/kg后,超过50%的集合成员表现为减雨效果,但仍然有部分成员表现为増雨。针对这次过程,多格点催化试验表明增雨效果发生概率最优的区域位于浙西北和浙北北部区域,尤其在嘉兴东北部和临安附近,从概率预报的角度来说也往往对应着相对较高的平均过冷水含量和较低的冰晶数浓度均值。

    Abstract:

    At present, the influence of environmental field errors on the simulation effect is rarely considered in seeding models, and the conclusions are often uncertain. In view of this, in this paper, ensemble forecast model by initial field perturbation is one-way coupled with the columnar cloud model with AgI seeding scheme. The cloud model is driven in real time by using the multiple sets of thermal and micro physical profiles provided by the mesoscale model, which include the environmental field disturbance error. The multi-member, single / multi-grid AgI seeding numerical experiments were carried out to simulate the precipitation process of convective-stratiform mixed clouds in Zhejiang Province on January 23, 2022, to determine the optimal seeding scheme and the probability distribution of seeding effect. The following results are obtained. From the simulation effect of a single station (Hangzhou Station), all members of ensemble forecast can achieve positive precipitation enhancement when the amounts of AgI used at a height of 3.6 km(- 5.2 ℃) was 1.2×10-7 ~1.2×10-4g/kg at 1500 UTC on 23rd, in which the precipitation enhancement is the largest when the amounts of AgI was 1.2×10-5 g/kg, with the mean value of 4.67% and the 99% quantile of 7.77%. In the single point simulation, the initial field disturbance has a great influence on the judgment of whether excessive seeding results in precipitation reduction, for example, when the amounts of AgI is increased to 1.2 ×10-2g/kg, more than 50% of the ensemble members showed the effect of precipitation reduction, but some members still showed the effect of enhancement. Multiple grid sensitive experiments show that it should be seeding in the northwest and north of Zhejiang, especially in the northeast of Jiaxing and near Lin " an area from the perspective of the optimal probability of seeding effect. These regions also tend to correspond to relatively high average supercooled water content and low average ice crystal number concentration.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-09-15
  • 最后修改日期:2022-11-29
  • 录用日期:2022-12-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-01-06
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