双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

东亚夏季风和中国雨季的趋势变化和关键区气温和海温的影响
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中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(41830969),中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金(2020KJ012)


Trends of East Asian summer monsoon and rainy season in China and their possible impact factors under global warming
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State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

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    摘要:

    中国的雨季的变化主要受到东亚夏季风环流的影响,表现出显著的年循环特征。本文基于 1961?2020 年中国台站观测的逐日降水和大气再分析资料,采用谐波分析、相关和回归统计方法,分析了过去 60 年的东亚夏季风和中国雨季的建立、撤退和持续时间等年循环参数趋势变化特征。结果显示,自 1961 年以来,东亚夏季风每十年的建立时间提前了 3.54 天,撤退时间滞后了 1.64 天,持续时间增加了 5.18 天。1999 年前后 22 年我国雨季也存在趋势变化,且在空间上存在显著差异。最近 22 年(1999?2020 年),我国雨季提前主要集中在东北东部、青藏高原东部、西北北部地区,提前时间达 5 天以上,部分地区超过了 20 天。雨季滞后主要集中在青藏高原东北,长江以北和西部地区,时间超过了 10 天。雨季持续时间增加主要集中在青藏高原东北部、我国长江以北、东北东南部地区,时间超过 15 天以上,部分地区超过 25 天。研究发现,4 月份环贝加尔湖地表气温增加及其伴随的局地反气旋性环流的异常,是东亚夏季风和我国雨季建立时间提前的关键,而 10 月份的西北太平洋海温增暖及其伴随的西北太平洋副热带反气旋的异常是导致东亚夏季风撤退和中国北方雨季变长的关键因子。当上述趋势叠加拉尼娜事件时,东亚夏季风和我国雨季的变化更加明显。

    Abstract:

    The rainy season in China is mainly regulated by the annual cycle of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), showing a significant year-to-year variation. Based on the daily precipitation in China and the atmospheric reanalyzed data, we analyzed the trends of EASM onset, withdrawal and duration, as well as the rainy season in China during 1961?2020. Our results show the EASM onset and withdrawal has advanced and delayed by 3.54 days and 1.64 days, respectively. And the duration has increased by 5.18 days per decade since 1961. The rainy season in China has changed before and after1999 with spatial differences. In contrast to the past two decades (1977?1998), the onset of rainy season in recent years (1999?2020) has advanced mainly in the eastern part of the Northeast China, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the north of Northwest China, where the advanced rainy onset was 5 days earlier, and exceeded 20 days in some areas. The withdrawal of rainy season has delayed more than 10 days in northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, north and west of the Yangtze River. The change of onset and withdrawal resulted in a sharply increased rainy duration in northeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, north of Yangtze River, and the southeastern part of the Northeast China, where the rainy length became more than 15 days longer and more than 25 days in some areas. The warming surface air temperature (SAT) around Lake Baikal with enhanced upper-level anticyclone in April are the key to the onset advance of the EASM and the rainy season in China. The warming of the northwest Pacific Ocean SST in October with enhanced subtropical anticyclone in the northwest Pacific are the key factors leading to the withdrawal delay of the EASM and the longer rainy season in northern China. When the warming of SAT and SST in these two regions are superimposed with the La Ni?a events, the duration of EASM and the rainy season in China becomes much longer on interannual time scale.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-09-29
  • 最后修改日期:2023-04-04
  • 录用日期:2023-04-23
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-28
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