双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

不同分辨率和云微物理方案对四川盆地一次暴雨过程的影响分析
作者:
作者单位:

1.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室;2.中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(42175167,U2142213),风云卫星先行计划(FY-APP-ZX-2022.01)


Analysis of the Influence of Different Resolutions and Cloud Microphysical Schemes on a Rainstorm Process in Sichuan Basin
Author:
Affiliation:

1.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences;2.Center for Earth System Modeling andPrediction of CMA

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    摘要:

    本文以美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP,National Centers for Environmental Prediction)的GFS(Global Forecast System)全球数值天气预报产品作为模式预报初始场,利用区域中尺度预报系统CMA-MESO(China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model)(原GRAPES_MESO)5.1版本对2021年9月3-5日发生在四川盆地的一次暴雨过程,采用3种不同分辨率(1km、3km、10km)和2种云微物理参数化(WSM6、Thompson)方案设计5组试验进行数值模拟研究,结果表明:(1)试验模拟雨带与实况基本一致,但强降水时间、降水落区和降水强度与实况存在差异。随着降水阈值的提高,TS 评分下降同时 Bias 变幅增大,空报漏报率也随之增加。(2)同分辨率是否采用积云参数化方案与同分辨率采用不同微物理方案对水汽通量模拟结果差异不大;5组试验在各自模拟的暴雨区均对应强烈的的上升气流,且模拟强度均随分辨率提高而增大。(3)1km分辨率下采用不同云微物理方案模拟液态粒子结果差异不大,但固态粒子明显不同。(4)3km分辨率下加入积云参数化方案后,对于强降水中心的模拟结果存在较大偏差。整体而言,针对此次降水过程的各个试验模拟结果表明,在高分辨率条件下,Thompson方案饱和调整方案效果略好于WSM6方案,1km_thompson方案对雨带刻画也更精准,降水模拟最优。

    Abstract:

    This paper uses the GFS (Global Forecast System) global numerical weather forecast product of NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) as the initial field of the model forecast, and uses the regional mesoscale forecast system CMA-MESO (China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model) (formerly GRAPES_MESO) version 5.1 to analyze a rainstorm process that happened in Sichuan Basin on September 3-5, 2021, Five groups of experiments were designed with three different resolutions (1km、3km、10km) and two cloud microphysical parameterization schemes (WSM6、Thompson) for numerical simulation,The results show that: (1) The simulated rain belt in the test is basically consistent with the actual situation, but there are differences between the time, area and intensity of heavy rainfall. With the increase of precipitation threshold, TS score decreases while Bias amplitude increases, which lead the rate of false report and missed report also increases. (2) There is no significant difference in the simulation results of water vapor flux between the same resolution cumulus parameterization scheme and different microphysical schemes; There are strong updraft in the simulated rainstorm regions of the five groups of experiments, and the simulation intensity increased with the increase of resolution. (3) The simulation results of liquid particles with different cloud microphysics schemes at the 1km resolution are similar, but the results of solid particles are obviously different. (4) When cumulus parameterization scheme is added to the 3km resolution, there is a large deviation for the simulation results of heavy precipitation center. On the whole, the experimental simulation results of the precipitation process show that under the condition of high resolution, the saturation adjustment scheme of Thompson scheme is slightly better than that of WSM6 scheme, and the 1km_thompson scheme is more accurate in depicting rain belts, and the precipitation simulation is the best.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-12
  • 最后修改日期:2023-06-09
  • 录用日期:2023-06-14
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-08-09
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