双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

物理参数化方案联合扰动对集合预报质量的影响
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1.南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;2.江西省气象台;3.河南省气候中心

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国家重点研发计划项目


Effect of Physical Parameterization Scheme Combined with Perturbation on Ensemble Prediction Quality
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Key Laboratory, Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME)/ Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

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    摘要:

    云微物理方案参数众多且参数间约束关系复杂,在集合预报中选择什么参数、如何进行参数组合扰动一直没有定论,本文基于WRFv4.2模式,选择WSM6方案8个参数对2020年一次梅雨锋强降水过程进行参数扰动集合预报试验。对比分析不同参数、不同扰动范围组合对预报的影响,尝试将云微物理方案和边界层方案的敏感参数进行联合扰动。结果表明:4个云微物理方案敏感参数的组合扰动在预报试验中表现最优,减小了暴雨概率预报的空报率,提升了湿度场、纬向风、低层温度场、对流层中层经向风的集合离散度;雨滴截断参数与云冰直径的有限最大值联合扰动后呈协同共振作用,能有效改进集合预报效果;而霰截断参数与霰密度、截断参数间的组合扰动显示,扰动能量并没有随扰动参数的增加而增强,参数间的拮抗作用会制约集合预报技巧的提升;MRF边界层方案三个参数的扰动对低层湿度场的集合预报技巧改善明显,且三个参数组合扰动比单个扰动集合预报技巧更高;同时将云微物理参数扰动方案和边界层参数扰动方案进行联合,效果最优。说明参数扰动时参数的选择、扰动的范围都会对集合预报的效果产生影响,呈协同关系的参数组合易取得较优的预报效果,存在拮抗作用的参数组合则呈现负技巧。考虑参数间依赖关系、扰动范围的多参数扰动更有利于集合预报效果的提升,为今后参数扰动中参数的选择提供了有价值的参考。

    Abstract:

    There are many parameters in the cloud microphysics scheme and the constraint relationship between the parameters is complex, so it has not been decided what parameters should be selected and how to carry out the parameter combination disturbance in the ensemble forecast. Based on WRFv4.2 model, this paper selects eight parameters of WSM6 scheme to conduct the ensemble prediction experiment of parameter disturbance for the heavy rainfall event of Meiyu front in 2020. Contrast and analyze the influence of different parameters and different disturbance range combinations on prediction, and try to jointly disturb the sensitive parameters of cloud microphysical scheme and boundary layer scheme. The results show that the combined disturbance of the 4 sensitive parameters of the cloud microphysics schemes has the best performance in the prediction test, which reduces the False Alarm Rate of torrential rain probability forecast, and improves the spread skills of humidity field, zonal wind, temperature field in low level and meridional wind in middle troposphere. The combined disturbance of the raindrop truncation parameter and the maximum of the cloud ice diameter presents a synergistic resonance effect, which can effectively improve the ensemble prediction effect. However, combined perturbations between graupel truncation parameters, graupel density and truncation parameters show that disturbance energy does not increase with the increase of disturbance parameters, and the antagonism between parameters will restrict the improvement of ensemble forecasting skills. The disturbance of three parameters in the MRF boundary layer scheme has significantly improved the ensemble prediction skill of low layer humidity field, and the combined disturbance of three parameters is better than that of a single disturbance; At the same time, joint perturbation of the cloud microphysical parameter perturbation scheme and boundary layer parameter perturbation scheme can achieve the best effect. It shows that the selection of parameter and the range of the disturbance can affect the effect of the ensemble forecast, a collaborative relationship between the parameters of the combination is easy to obtain a better forecast effect, while parameter combinations with antagonistic effect show negative skills. Multi parameter disturbance considering the dependency relationship between parameters and the range of disturbance is more conducive to the improvement of ensemble prediction effect, which provides a valuable reference for the selection of parameters in parameter disturbance in the future.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-09
  • 最后修改日期:2023-06-14
  • 录用日期:2023-08-22
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