双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

GRIST模式全球0.125度基线配置的中期降水预报性能分析
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1.航天宏图信息技术股份有限公司;2.航天宏图信息技术股份有限公司,2035未来实验室

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Performance analysis of Precipitation Forecast by the baseline version of GRIST Global 0.125-degree weather model configuration
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2035 Future Laboratory,PIESAT Information Technology,Co. Ltd.

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    摘要:

    利用国内自主研发的全球-区域一体化预测系统(GRIST)0.125度天气预报模式配置开展了中期天气预报试验,通过与ERA5再分析数据、卫星观测数据(GPM)和成熟的业务全球数值天气预报模式结果进行比较评估了该系统基线配置下的降水预报性能,并探索了模式对不同动力配置的敏感性。结果表明,冷启动下的GRIST模式能较好地模拟全球500hPa环流场,其对500hPa位势高度异常相关系数(ACC500)的模拟性能和美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)的全球预报系统(GFS)基本相当。降水模拟方面,GRIST能够再现和观测一致的全球平均降水的空间分布。随着积分时间增加,模式在赤道辐合带和青藏高原南坡附近相比于NCEP-GFS出现了稍高的系统性降水湿偏差。基于降水强度和频次的分析表明,这种湿偏差很可能源于GRIST模式对这些区域降水频次的高估。针对全球6个降水关键区,考察了模式的强度-频次谱结构和日变化特征。GRIST对“较强降水”强度-频次结构的模拟能力优于NCEP-GFS,且对降水日循环的总体模拟较好,但部分地区存在对降水峰值的略微高估和提前。GRIST静力和非静力内核在0.125度分辨率的降水预报的统计特征具有较高的一致性,垂直60层较30层在环流和降水的模拟上均有一定增益效果。

    Abstract:

    Medium-range forecasting experiments were conducted using the 0.125-degree weather forecast model configuration of the domestically developed Global-to-Regional Integrated forecast SysTem model (GRIST). The precipitation forecast performance for the baseline version of GRIST was evaluated by comparing with the ERA5 reanalysis data, satellite observation data (GPM) and two global numerical weather prediction models. In addition, sensitivity of GRIST to different dynamic configurations was explored. The results show that GRIST under cold start can simulate the global 500hPa circulation well. Its performance on 500hPa geopotential height anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC500) is comparable to that of the Global Forecast System(GFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP). In terms of precipitation simulation, GRIST reproduced the spatial distribution of global mean precipitation overall consistent with the observation. With the increase of integration time, the model presents larger systematic precipitation wet biases than NCEP-GFS over the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the south slope of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on the analysis of precipitation intensity and frequency, these wet biases are likely due to the overestimation of precipitation frequency. Six key regions are selected to investigate the forecasted precipitation intensity-frequency spectrum and its diurnal variation. The intensity and frequency structure of “heavy precipitation” is better simulated by GRIST than that in NCEP-GFS. The simulation performance of diurnal variation of precipitation is generally reasonable, but an overestimation and advance of precipitation peak was found in several areas. The hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic dynamical cores of GRIST are highly consistent in the 0.125-degree resolution weather prediction, and the vertical 60 layers experiments have certain added value on simulating circulation and precipitation compared with the 30 layers.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-11-10
  • 最后修改日期:2023-09-28
  • 录用日期:2023-11-17
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-11-17
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