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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

北太平洋维多利亚模态(VM)与海洋性大陆秋季降水年际关系的年代际变化
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中国科学技术大学地球和空间科学学院

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41675066


The decadal change of interannual relationship between Victoria Mode in the North Pacific (VM) and autumn precipitation in the Maritime Continent
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USTC

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    摘要:

    本文利用HadISST和ERSSTv5海温、CMAP降水和ERA5再分析资料,研究了北太平洋春季海表温度与海洋性大陆秋季降水年际变化之间的关系及年代际变化特征。研究表明:1)北太平洋维多利亚模态(VM)是北太平洋春季海表温度EOF第二模态,其与秋季海洋性大陆的降水存在显著的负相关关系。2)春季的VM为正(负)位相时,通常伴随太平洋经向模态的正(负)位相和西北太平洋的冷(暖)海表温度异常,海温梯度会导致赤道太平洋的西风(东风)异常,影响东传的赤道Kelvin波,在赤道中东太平洋形成暖(冷)海温异常,再通过Bjerknes正反馈,西风异常和赤道中东太平洋的海温异常维持到秋季,出现较成熟的厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)事件,再通过沃克环流,导致海洋性大陆出现异常下沉(上升)运动和低层辐散、高层辐合(低层辐合、高层辐散)的环流形势,产生降水负(正)异常。3)春季的VM和秋季的海洋性大陆降水年际变化的关系在2003年发生了年代际转变,1979~2002年春季VM与秋季降水在年际变化上有显著的负相关,而2004~2020年相关关系转变为不显著。造成这个年代际转变的原因是北太平洋涛动(NPO)在2004~2020年改变,导致VM南部海温关键区受NPO的影响减弱,从而振幅减弱,使得VM的南部和北部海温关键区的经向梯度减弱,VM强度减弱,最终导致相关系数降低。

    Abstract:

    Using HadISST and ERSSTv5 SSTs, CMAP precipitation and ERA5 reanalysis data, this paper studies the relationship between spring sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific and autumn precipitation in the the Maritime Continent. The results show that: 1) Victoria mode (VM) is the second mode of EOF analysis of spring SST in the North Pacific, which has a significant negative correlation with autumn precipitation in the Maritime Continent. 2) When VM is in positive (negative) phase in spring, it is usually accompanied by the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific meridional mode and the cold (warm) SST anomaly in the Northwest Pacific. The SST gradient would lead to the westerly (easterly) anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, impacting eastward propagation of equatorial Kelvin wave and leading to warm (cold) SST anomaly in the central and eastern Pacific. SST gradient and westerly (easterly) anomaly persist into autumn through Bjerknes feedback, so the mature El Ni?o (La Ni?a) event forms in autumn. Then, through the Walker circulation, the abnormal sinking (rising) movement, low-level divergence and high-level convergence (low-level convergence and high-level divergence) over the Maritime Continent occur, resulting in precipitation deduction (increase). 3) This interannual relationship between the variation of springtime VM and the autumn precipitation over the Maritime Continent has changed in 2003, which was a significant negative correlation from 1979 to 2002, but was insignificance from 2004 to 2020. The reason for this decadal change is that the North Pacific Oscillation altered from 2004 to 2020, which led to the weakening of the influence of the North Pacific Oscillation on the key area of southern SST part of VM, thus weakening the amplitude, weakening the meridional gradient of the key area of SST between the southern and northern part of VM, weakening the VM amplitude, and finally reducing the correlation coefficient.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-12-08
  • 最后修改日期:2023-03-15
  • 录用日期:2023-03-30
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-28
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