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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

中国夏季极端高温日数年际变化的主要模态及产生机理
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南京信息工程大学

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国家自然科学基金


Dominant Modes of Interannual Variation of China Summer Extremely High Temperature Days and Associated Mechanisms
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Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

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    摘要:

    本文基于1961-2017年中国逐日最高温度资料(CN05.1),通过经验正交函数分解(EOF)揭示了中国夏季极端高温日数(EHTD)年际变化的主导模态,探究了导致各模态形成的关键影响因子和相关物理机制。结果表明:第一模态表现为横贯中国的纬向型分布,该模态主要与北极涛动(AO)有关。AO正位相时从北欧向南传播的罗斯贝波列加强横贯中国的纬向高压异常。第二模态表现为经向偶极子型分布,该模态主要受从北大西洋向东亚地区传播的极地-欧亚型遥相关波列(POL)和赤道西太暖池区上升支加强局地哈德来环流的共同影响,使得华南地区(中国北方)受高压(低压)的控制。前两个模态的极端高温日数增加均与局地高压异常造成的降水减少引起的入射太阳短波辐射增加有关。第三模态的分布集中在青藏高原,主要受从地中海向下游传播的纬向波列的影响。与该波列对应的环流异常一方面会造成水汽辐散、上升运动减弱,从而使得云量减少、向下的云-短波辐射增加,另一方面会造成大气增温、从而使得晴空向下的长波辐射增加,二者共同为极端高温日数增加提供有利条件。本研究结果将有助于加深对中国夏季极端高温变化特征的认识,并为未来开展极端高温的季节预测提供理论参考。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily maximum temperature data (CN05.1) in China during 1961-2017, this paper reveals the dominant modes of the interannual variation of the number of summer extremely high-temperature days (EHTD) in China through empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF), and explores the key influencing factors and related physical mechanisms that lead to the formation of each mode. The results show that the first mode is the zonal distribution across China, which is mainly related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The Rossby wave train propagating southward from the northern Europe strengthens the zonal high anomaly across China when the AO is in a positive phase. The second mode shows the meridional dipole pattern, which is mainly influenced by the Polar-Eurasian teleconnection (POL) wave train spreading from North Atlantic Ocean to East Asia and the sea surface temperature anomaly over the western tropical Pacific enhances local Hadley cell, which makes the south (north) of China under the control of high (low) pressure systems. The increase of EHTD in the first two modes is related to the increase of incident solar radiation caused by the decrease of precipitation caused by local high-pressure anomalies. The distribution of the third mode is concentrated in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is mainly influenced by the zonal wave train propagating downstream from the Mediterranean Sea. On the one hand, the circulation anomaly corresponding to the wave train will cause the divergence of water vapor and the weakening of upward motion, which will decrease the cloud cover and increase the downward cloudy-sky shortwave radiation; on the other hand, it will cause atmospheric warming, which will increase the downward clear-sky longwave radiation. Both of them provide favorable conditions for the increase in the number of extremely high-temperature days. The results of this study will help to further understand the characteristics of summer extreme high temperature in China, and provide a theoretical basis for the seasonal prediction of extreme high temperature.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-12-09
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-22
  • 录用日期:2023-05-23
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-06-08
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