双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

基于天气分型的四川盆地西侧极端强降水事件环流异常配置与演变特征
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1.中国气象科学研究院;2.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室

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科技部第二次青藏高原科学考察(2019QZKK0105)和国家自然科学基金(91937301)


Characteristics of Large scale circulation anomaly configuration and its evolution for extreme heavy precipitation events in the west of Sichuan Basin based on classified weather pattern
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Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

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    摘要:

    四川盆地西侧是中国区域极端强降水事件发生频率最高的区域之一,由于区域地形和天气系统复杂性。基于2001-2020年中国地面气象观测站网观测的降水数据、GPM-IMERG降水数据以及ERA5大气再分析资料,本文以发生在盆地西侧的100个极端强降水事件为研究对象,采用基于k-means聚类分析的天气分型方法,将强降水事件分型;结合大气动力-热力诊断方法,分析了不同类型降水事件环流异常配置与演变特征。结果表明,3种类型强降水发生期间,位势高度均表现为高层正异常(200hPa)和低层负异常(850hPa),大气垂直速度显著增大,温度异常呈现“上冷下暖”的异常结构,并伴随着来自低纬海洋地区水汽输送的增强。但三种类型降水对应的南亚高原(SAH)、西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)和西风急流等大尺度环流因子在位置和强度上存在差异,继而影响水汽输送过程:发生频次最多的1型降水的水汽主要来自低纬孟加拉湾和中国南海;2型降水发生期间WPSH发展最强,其水汽主要来自东亚季风控制下的中国南海,而孟加拉湾水汽输送受到限制;而发生在SAH强度偏弱期间的3型降水发生频次最少,其主要受青藏高原东北侧的反气旋异常和东亚季风控制下的水汽输送影响。3种类型降水环流演变特征分析显示,强降水发生前,罗斯贝波作用量呈增强趋势、大气垂直速度增加以及温度异常更为显著,这些异常特征使得局地对流活动和高空辐散低层辐合过程增强,有利于极端降水事件形成。进一步分析表明,与SAH比较而言,WPSH位置和强度的变化对强降水形成预测具有更好的指示意义。

    Abstract:

    The western side of the Sichuan Basin is one of the regions with the highest frequency of extreme heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in China. However, due to the complexity of terrain and atmospheric circulations systems, the formation mechanism of HPEs remains elusive. Based on the gauged data by China Meteorological Administration from 2001 to 2020, GPM-IMERG precipitation and ERA5 reanalysis data, we selected 100 extreme HPEs in the west of Sichuan Basin, and classified these HPEs into three categories with K-means clustering method. Then, the anomalies of atmospheric circulation and its evolution with respect to different category of HPEs are explored. The results show that, during the period of precipitation, the geopotential height is characterized by a positive anomaly at the upper-level (200hPa) and negative anomaly at the lower-level (850hPa), together with the enhanced vertical wind speed, a "top-cold and bottom-warm" atmospheric temperature structure, and the increased water vapor transport departing from the low latitude ocean area. However, their atmospheric circulations configuration, including the South Asian High, the Western Pacific Subtropical High, and the westerly jet in upper level, shows obvious difference and plays a dominant role in in shaping the precipitation formation of different types and associated water vapor transport: For category 1 HPEs ranked the highest frequency of occurrence, its associated water vapor transport mainly comes from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, which controlled both by the Indian monsoon and the East Asian monsoon. As to category 1, HPEs occurs with the strengthened WPSH, and its water vapor mainly comes from the South China Sea, while the water vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal is restricted. When it comes to the category 3, its water vapor transport mainly controlled by the East Asian monsoon. Prior to the occurrence of HPEs, it can be found that the Rossby wave action shows an increasing trend, the atmospheric vertical wind speed increase significantly, and the temperature anomaly was more significant. These features are conducive to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. The results also indicates that the changes in WPSH position and intensity on synoptic time scales are better indicators for the prediction of heavy precipitation formation compared to SAH.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-02-05
  • 最后修改日期:2023-03-03
  • 录用日期:2023-04-24
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