双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

基于区域自动站降水数据的暴雨过程空间划分及强度评估研究
作者:
作者单位:

1.厦门市气象局海峡气象开放实验室 厦门;2.厦门市气象服务中心 厦门;3.中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟科学中心 北京;4.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG) 北京

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基金项目:

福建省自然科学基金2021J01465, 厦门市社会发展领域指导项目3502Z20214ZD4012


Spatial classification and intensity assessment of heavy rainfall based onprecipitation data of automatic weather stations over Xiamen
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Earth System Numerical Simulation Science Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing;2.College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing;3.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing

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    摘要:

    区域自动气象站的广泛应用极大地提高了当前气象监测的覆盖面和精密度,能够为中小尺度灾害性天气监测预警和区域气象服务、气候分析等科研和业务应用提供重要的数据支撑。本文基于2015-2021年厦门市国家气象站和区域自动气象站逐日降水资料,对厦门市暴雨空间范围、强度和降水的时空分布及天气背景等特征进行评估分析,主要结论如下:(1)基于各区暴雨站数的面积密度权重,研制了暴雨过程空间划分指标,将暴雨过程划分为局地性、区域性、大范围及全域型;综合考虑评估因子之间的独立性及站点非均匀分布特征,基于不同量级暴雨站数的面积权重和致灾影响,研制了暴雨过程强度评估指标,利用百分位法确定暴雨过程强度等级,实现暴雨过程空间范围和强度的紧密关联。(2)受山、海、湾地形地貌特点影响,厦门市降水的区域非均匀特征显著、局地性特点突出,各站年平均年降水量、暴雨频次分布呈现从沿海向内陆递增,暴雨频次与地形的分布密切相关。(3)2015~2021年期间,共出现局地性、区域性、大范围及全域型暴雨过程分别为106、37、16和5场,占比65%、22%、10%和3%;厦门市各月均出现暴雨过程,但集中出现在主汛期5-9月,以6月和8月为最多;164场暴雨过程包括特强8场、强24场、较强33场和一般99场,暴雨过程总强度和平均强度均以2016年居首位、2020年最弱,8场特强暴雨空间范围均在大范围以上,而99场一般暴雨均为局地性暴雨。(4)区域性以上暴雨过程的主要影响系统包括冷暖空气、台风及热带低值系统、偏南气流、辐合带北抬、低层切变及强对流等,大范围以上特别是全域型暴雨则主要由冷暖空气活动及台风(含热带低压)造成。在简述大范围以上暴雨天气背景基础上,对2015年12月9日的罕见冬季全域型特强暴雨环流特征进行了描述,所得结果可为开展监测评估、预报预警和精细化气象服务提供参考。

    Abstract:

    The widely use of automatic weather station has greatly improved the accuracy of meteorological monitoring, providing important support for forecasting and warning, meteorological services, climate analysis and scientific research. Based on the daily precipitation data of the national and automatic weather station in 2015-2021, the multi-scale spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, the spatial category and intensity characteristics of heavy rainfall, and a brief weather background were analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Based on the area-density weights of the rainstorm stations in each district, the spatial classification index of the heavy rainfall is developed with 4 categories of local, regional, wide-range and territory-coverage considering the independence of the assessment factors and the non-uniform distribution of the stations. Based on the area weight of the number of rainstorm stations and the disaster-causing effects of different magnitude rainfall, the assessment index of heavy rainfall intensity is developed. By using the percentile method to determine the intensity grade of heavy rainfall, the spatial range and intensity of heavy rainfall are closely connected.(2) The precipitation in Xiamen was characterized by significant regional heterogeneity and local characteristics due to the topographic and geomorphological characteristics of mountains, sea and bays. The mean annual precipitation and heavy rainfall frequency increased gradually from the coast to inland, and the frequency of rainstorm was closely related to the distribution of topography. (3) In 2015-2021, there were 106, 37, 16 and 5 rainstorms of the aforementioned category in Xiamen, accounting for 65%, 22%, 10% and 3%, respectively.Heavy rainfall occurred in every month, and concentrated in the main flood season from May to September, with peaking in June and August.There were 8 extremely heavy, 24 heavy, 33 relatively and 99 general cases, and the total intensity and average intensity ranked firstly in 2016 and the weakest in 2020. The spatial category of the 8 extremely heavy events was territory-wide scale, while the 99 general heavy rainfall were all local-range events.(4) The main influencing systems of the regional torrential rain processes included warm-cold air activities, tropical cyclones, southerly stream, northward uplift of convergence zone, low-level wind shear and strong convection, etc. The wide-range especially the territory-wide heavy rainfall caused mainly by warm-cold air activities and tropical cyclones. A rare territory-coverage winter heavy rainfall event occurred on 9thDec 2015 due to the impacting of weak cold air and the strong warm moist airflow.The results can be used as a scientific reference for monitoring, forecasting, assessment and service of heavy rainfall.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2023-03-14
  • 最后修改日期:2024-02-03
  • 录用日期:2024-04-07
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-09
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