双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

不同模式背景场对复杂山地百米级温度和风场融合预报影响的对比研究
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北京城市气象研究院

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北京市自然科学基金8212025,北京市气象局科技项目BMBKJ202004011,国家自然科学基金42275012


Comparative study on the influence of different NWP model background on the 100-meter integrated temperature and wind forecasts in complex terrain
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Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA

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    摘要:

    基于高分辨率融合集成预报RISE系统,采用华北3km分辨率快速循环更新的中尺度数值模式CMA-BJ、欧洲中心0.125度分辨率全球数值模式ECMWF、常规自动站和冬奥赛道加密自动站逐时观测资料,以北京冬奥会复杂山地为研究区域,对比分析了不同模式背景场对100m网格分辨率地面2-m温度和10-m风场融合分析和1-24小时逐小时间隔预报准确性的影响。结果表明:(1)采用区域模式和全球模式作为RISE系统背景场,均可有效形成复杂山地百米级精细化融合产品,但不同模式背景场对不同气象要素分析和预报性能的影响存在明显差异;(2)对于温度分析,模式背景场的影响最小,以CAM-BJ和ECMWF为模式背景场的RISE温度分析场空间分布基本一致,分析MAE误差均小于0.2oC;(3)对于风场分析,采用高分辨率区域模式比粗分辨率全球模式更能提升RISE高精度风场融合产品精细化水平;(4)对于温度预报,以ECMWF为背景场的RISE 100m格点融合预报性能显著优于CMA-BJ背景场,冬奥高山站和所有站平均预报误差分别减小10.5%和7.0%;(5)对于风场预报,以CAM-BJ和ECMWF为模式背景场的RISE冬奥高山站临近1-6h风速预报MAE误差分别为1.42m/s和1.30m/s,7-24h预报MAE则分别为1.52m/s和1.54m/s,而RISE区域内所有站1-24h平均MAE误差分别为1.38m/s和1.24m/s。研究成果有助于深入理解模式背景场在百米级融合预报中的作用,对提升复杂地形下天气预报准确性有重要的科学意义和业务应用价值。

    Abstract:

    Based on the high resolution integrated forecast system of RISE, using the meso-scale CMA-BJ model with 3km resolution and the global-scale ECMWF model with 0.125 degree resolution, adopting the hourly observation data of conventional and dense automatic weather stations, taking the outdoor mountainous competition area in Beijing Winter Olympics as the research area, this study compares the effects of different numerical weather prediction (NWP) model background on the accuracy of surface 2-m temperature and 10-m wind analysis and hourly forecast for the future 1-24h with 100m grid resolution. The results show that: (1) Both the regional and global models can be used as the background of RISE system to effectively form 100-meter fine integrated products in complex terrain, but the impacts of different NWP model backgrounds on the analysis and forecast performance for different meteorological elements are obviously different; (2) For temperature analysis, the model background has the least influence. The spatial distribution of RISE temperature analysis with CAM-BJ and ECMWF as the NWP model background is basically the same, and the MAE error is both less than 0.2oC; (3) For wind analysis, adopting high-resolution regional model can improve the refinement level of RISE high-precision wind integrated products better than the global model with coarse resolution; (4) For temperature forecast, the performance of RISE 100m grid forecasts with ECMWF model background is significantly better than that with CMA-BJ model background, and the average forecast errors for Winter Olympic alpine stations and all stations are reduced by 10.5% and 7.0%, respectively. (5) For wind speed forecast, the MAE errors of 1-6h forecast for RISE Winter Olympics alpine stations with CAM-BJ and ECMWF model backgrounds are 1.42m/s and 1.30m/s, respectively, and the MAE errors of 7-24h forecast are 1.52m/s and 1.54m/s, respectively. Besides, the average 1-24h MAE errors for all stations in RISE region are 1.38m/s and 1.24m/s, respectively. The results in this study are helpful to further understand the role of model background in the 100-meter-level integrated forecast, and have important scientific significance and practical value for improving the accuracy of weather forecast in complex terrain.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-04-14
  • 最后修改日期:2023-06-17
  • 录用日期:2023-10-07
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-10-07
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