双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

中国东部夏季降水模态对不同二氧化碳增加过程的响应
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作者单位:

1.中国科学院大气物理研究所;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室

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基金项目:

中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA23040501)、国家自然科学基金(42105041, 42175178)和中国科学院国际伙伴计划(060GJHZ2022057MI)


Response of Eastern China Summer Rainfall Modes to Increased Carbon Dioxide
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Affiliation:

METEOROLOGY OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

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    摘要:

    中国东部夏季的旱涝特征通常表现为经向多极型的空间分布,研究其在全球增暖背景下的变化对水资源管理、农业发展规划以及防灾减灾等具有重要意义。然而,目前针对降水模态对增暖响应的研究较少考虑模式内部变率的影响。基于此,本文通过对比多组第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的模式试验,在考虑模式内部变率的前提下,分析了不同CO2增加过程对中国东部夏季降水模态的影响。结果表明:CO2增加不会改变中国东部降水异常主模态的空间结构,在骤增4倍CO2试验(4×CO2)和每年渐增1%CO2试验(1%CO2)中偶极型和三极型模态仍是该地区降水变率的主模态,以偶极型模态更为主导,但这两种模态出现频率、强度和变化趋势会发生改变。相较工业革命前参考试验(piControl),在4×CO2试验中,大部分模式的三极型和偶极型模态变率均变小;在1%CO2试验中,大部分模式的偶极型模态变率增大,而三极型模态变率减小。随着CO2的逐渐累积,三极型和偶极型模态都将出现明显的位相转变特征,将更多的出现长江中下游地区降水偏少同时华南、华北降水偏多的三极型位相,以及“南涝北旱”的偶极型位相。在4×CO2试验中,三极型和偶极型模态对应的海温和环流异常相对piControl试验整体显著减弱;而在1% CO2试验中,其差异具有区域性,三极型模态对应更弱的印度洋和西北太平洋海温异常;而偶极型模态则对应更强的赤道中东太平洋和北太平洋海温异常。

    Abstract:

    The spatial distribution of summer rainfall anomalies over eastern China often characterized by meridionally banded structure. The possible change of it in response to global warming is of great significance to water resource management and disaster prevention. Previous studies show critical role of climate variability on modulating these rainfall modes while seldom studies considered model’s internal variability on investigating their responses to increased greenhouse gas. Based on model simulations with different forcings from the fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), this paper analyzes the response of the leading modes of eastern China summer rainfall to increased CO2 concentration with consideration of model internal variability. The results show that increased CO2 would not change the leading modes of eastern China summer rainfall. The tripole and dipole mode during the recent decades would still be the leading modes in the abrupt quadruple CO2 experiment (4×CO2) and 1% per year increased until quadrupled CO2 experiment (1%CO2) with the dipole mode plays a more dominant role. However, the frequency, intensity and trend of these modes will change. Compared to pre-industrial control simulation (piControl), the temporal variability of the tripole and dipople mode both decrease under 4×CO2 forcing. The variability of dipole mode intensifies while tripole mode weakens under 1%CO2 forcing. With the gradually accumulation of CO2, the occurrence of the positive and negative phase of these modes will change. The phase of tripole mode which featured with drought over the Yangtze River Basin while flood over North and South China would happen more frequently. So does the “Southern flood and northern drought” phase of the dipole mode. Compared to piControl simulation, the sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the dipole and tripole mode both weaken under 4×CO2 forcing. Whereas under 1%CO2 forcing, their differences are regional dependent. The tripole mode is associated with weakened anomalies over the Indian and western North Pacific Ocean while the dipole mode is associated with stronger central and eastern tropical Pacific and North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2023-04-18
  • 最后修改日期:2023-04-21
  • 录用日期:2023-09-06
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