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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

北极-中纬度联系与北极海冰变化的关系研究新进展
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复旦大学

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Recent Progresses in the study on Arctic-midlatitude connection and its association with Arctic sea ice loss
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    摘要:

    本文概要介绍了近年来(2018-2023年),北极-中纬度联系与北极海冰变化的关系研究新进展。主要包括以下几个方面:(1)对北极海冰融化在欧洲极端降雪个例中的贡献有了实质性的认识,这是以往研究提出的北极海冰影响大气环流的机制所无法解释的。(2)冬季亚洲区域气温对北极海冰持续融化的响应有显著的低频振荡特征。北极海冰持续融化,有利于冬季暖北极-冷欧亚(2004/05-2012/13)和暖北极-暖欧亚(2013/14-2016/17)交替出现。前一阶段北极-中纬度联系加强,而暖北极-暖欧亚阶段北极与东亚的联系减弱了,但海冰融化影响北极-欧亚大陆联系强弱变化的机理不清楚。(3)在夏季平均和季节内时间尺度上,东亚中、低纬度区域夏季高温热浪极端天气事件与同期北极对流层中、低层冷异常有直接的动力联系。北极夏季对流层中、低层冷异常不仅有利于减缓北极海冰融化,而且成为预测后期东亚冬季风趋势的前兆因子。(4)北极夏季海冰融化异常,对我国华北以南区域夏季降水并无实质性影响。(5)尽管诸多研究强调了平流层-对流层相互作用,在连接北极海冰融化与中纬度天气气候中起重要作用,但因果联系依然偏弱,不确定性大于对流层过程。(6)区分北极海冰强迫与大气内部变率在天气事件和气候变率中的不同作用已无实际意义。未来关注北极海冰融化的影响,更应注重其在大气环流低频变化中的作用,以及北极海冰异常空间分布差异和不同异常振幅的影响,同时需要定量化研究北极海冰融化在极端天气和气候事件中的作用。

    Abstract:

    This paper provides an overview of recent (2018-2023) progresses in the research filed of the Arctic-Eurasian midlatitude linkage and its association with Arctic sea ice loss. The progress includes the following aspects: (1) There is a substantial understanding of the contribution of Arctic sea ice melting in an extreme snowfall event in Europe, which cannot be explained by the mechanism that Arctic sea ice variations affect atmospheric circulation proposed in previous studies. (2) The response of winter Asian regional temperatures to the continuous melting of Arctic sea ice exhibits significant low-frequency oscillation characteristics. The continuous melting of Arctic sea ice is conducive to the alternating occurrence of warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (2004/05-2012/13) and warm Arctic-warm Eurasia (2013/14-2016/17). In the war Arctic-cold Eurasia phase, the enhanced Arctic-midlatitude connection was observed, while in the warm Arctic-warm Eurasian phase, the linkage between the Arctic and East Asia weakened. However, the mechanism by which sea ice melting affects the strength of the Arctic-Eurasian connection is unclear. (3) At summer mean and sub-seasonal time scales, summer heatwaves in the mid- and low-latitudes of East Asia are dynamically linked to the simultaneous cold anomalies in the mid- and low-troposphere over the Arctic. Arctic summer cold anomalies are conducive to not only slowing down Arctic sea ice melting, but also provide a precursor signal for predicting East Asian winter monsoon. (4) Arctic sea ice loss does not produce substantial impact on summer precipitation variability in the region south to North China. (5) Although there are many studies stressing the important roles of the troposphere-stratosphere interactions in linking Arctic sea ice loss to weather events and climate variability in the midlatitudes, the causal-effect linkage is still weak, and the uncertainty of the impact of the stratosphere process on weather events and climate variability is greater than that of the troposphere process. (6) It is no longer practical to distinguish the different roles of Arctic sea ice forcing and atmospheric internal variability in weather events and climate variability. In the future, more attention should be paid to the role of Arctic sea ice melting in resulting low-frequency atmospheric circulation variability, as well as the impacts of the spatial distribution differences in Arctic sea ice anomalies and different abnormal amplitudes. Additionally, quantitative research is also needed to explore the roles of Arctic sea ice melting in extreme weather and climate events.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-04-19
  • 最后修改日期:2023-09-12
  • 录用日期:2023-09-25
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