双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

两种分辨率全球模式对中国区域气象要素模拟能力及暴雨个例分析
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中国科学院大气物理研究所

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中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类-XDA19030403); 国家自然科学基金(42141017)


Simulation of regional meteorological elements and rainstorms in China by two resolution Global Forecast System
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Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of sciences

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    摘要:

    数值天气预报效果的改进依赖于模式物理过程的完善、模式初始场的改进以及模式空间分辨率的提高,其中模式分辨率的提高已成为改善模式预报效果一个有效途径。基于全球数值预报模式,利用T1534(13km)和T254(55km)两种不同分辨率模式进行预报,并对中国区域气温、气压、风速和降水预报效果进行分析。结果表明:两种分辨率模式产品针对中国区域气压的模拟中,华北地区的预报效果最好,ERA5再分析资料的相关系数均达0.8以上,且7个子区域的均方根误差随着分辨率增高均显著降低;对气温的模拟中,西南地区的均方根误差较小为2.171,在提高模式分辨率后均方根误差为1.523,减少了30.1%;对风速的模拟中,两种分辨率产品在季风区的相关系数普遍高于非季风区;在地形复杂的地区如西北地区而言,随着模式分辨率的增加,风速均方根误差却小幅度增大,由此可见,模式分辨率的提高不一定能提高风速预报的准确性。针对2019年8月10日山东地区发生强降水天气过程,两种不同分辨率的模式产品均能较好的模拟出降水特征,覆盖了实际降水落区,高分辨率模式预报各种降水等级的偏差评分均低于低分辨率。此次强降水过程在降水当日相对湿度接近于饱和状态,易于凝结,且随着模式分辨率的提高,相对湿度增强,结构更加精细,同时高分辨率模式模拟的低层气旋中心气压较低分辨率模式更低,气旋的强度更大,对流降水过程更强。

    Abstract:

    The improvement of numerical weather prediction depends on the improvement of the model physical process, the model initial field and model spatial resolution. The improvement of the model resolution has become an effective way to improve the model prediction effect. Based on the global forecast system, T1534 (13km) and T254 (55km) models with different resolutions were used to forecast the temperature, pressure, wind speed and precipitation over China. The results show that, among the two resolution models, North China has the best forecast effect. The correlation coefficients with ERA5 reanalysis data are all above 0.8, and the root-mean-square errors of the seven subregions decrease significantly with the increase of resolution. In the simulation of air temperature, the root-mean-square error in southwest China is 2.171, which is reduced by 30.1% to 1.523 after the model resolution is improved. In the simulation of wind speed, the correlation coefficients of the two resolution products are generally higher in the monsoon region than in the non-monsoon region. In a region with complex terrain, such as northwest China, the root-mean-square error of wind speed increases slightly with the increase of model resolution. It can be seen that the improvement of model resolution may not necessarily improve the accuracy of wind speed forecast. According to the heavy precipitation weather process in Shandong on August 10, 2019, the two models with different resolutions can simulate the precipitation characteristics well and cover the actual precipitation falling area. The deviation scores of various precipitation grades predicted by the high resolution model are lower than those of the low resolution model. In this heavy precipitation process, the relative humidity was close to saturation on the precipitation day, which was easy to condense, and with the improvement of the model resolution, the relative humidity was enhanced and the structure became more refined. Meanwhile, the central pressure of the low-level cyclone simulated by the high resolution model was lower than that of the low-resolution model, and the cyclone intensity was greater and the convective precipitation process was stronger.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-04-23
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-06
  • 录用日期:2023-06-30
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-08-09
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