双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

中国近海变暖和海洋热浪演变特征及气候成因研究进展
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自然资源部第三海洋研究所 海洋可持续发展研究中心 福建省厦门市 361005

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(42005013)Funded by National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFA0604902)andNational Natural ScienceFoundation of China (42005013).


Progress on the evolutionary characteristics and climatic causes of warming and marine heatwaves in the coastal China seas
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    摘要:

    近几十年来,气候变化背景下中国近海海表面温度(SST)显著上升且极端高海温事件(海洋热浪)频发,时常引发海洋生物大规模死亡和赤潮暴发等生态灾害。为此,回顾了中国近海变暖及海洋热浪的相关研究进展,包括海温变化趋势和变率、海洋热浪演变特征和气候成因,以及相关的影响,并探讨了应对策略。分析结果表明,1960–2022年,中国近海尤其是东中国海(渤、黄和东海)对气候变化的响应显著,SST分别上升了1.02 ±0.19°C、1.45±0.32°C,并有明显的年代际和年际变率;SST的变化除了受到ENSO、PDO等大尺度海气相互作用的影响,还受到东亚季风变化与黑潮经向输运的直接影响和共同作用。中国近海变暖还引起了地理等温线明显向北迁移,导致季节性物候发生变迁(春季提前和秋季滞后),并影响海洋生物生长节律、地理分布、群落结构和生态服务功能,而频繁发生的海洋热浪也对珊瑚礁等海洋生态系统和海水养殖业造成灾难性的影响。分析还揭示,未来中国近海较高纬度海区将暴露于更强烈的升温、热浪、酸化、缺氧和生产力降低等综合影响下,海洋生态系统尤其是中国南海珊瑚礁生态系统面临突破气候临界点的风险。当前除应加强对中国近海变暖和海洋热浪物理过程、可预报性及预测预警等研究外,还亟需采取变革性的海洋气候行动及应对措施,增强海洋生态系统的气候恢复力,应对未来气候变化的影响。

    Abstract:

    Robust warming and frequent extremely high sea temperature events (marine heatwaves, MHWs) have been observed in the coastal China seas (CCS) over the past decades, causing a series of ecological disaster, including mass mortality of marine organisms and outbreaks of harmful algal blooms. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the research progress involving the warming and marine heatwaves in the CCS, including the characteristics and causes of long-term warming trend and MHWs, as well as their ecological impacts and adaptation strategies. Under the combined influences of the East Asian monsoon and Kuroshio, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the CCS, especially in the East China Sea (Bohai, Yellow and East China Seas), has shown an enhanced response to global warming, with annual mean increases of 1.02 ±0.19°C and 1.45±0.32°C during the period of 1960-2022, respectively, with significant inter-decadal and inter-annual variability. In addition to the influence of large-scale air sea interaction such as ENSO and PDO, SST changes are also directly affected and jointly affected by the East Asian Monsoon changes and the Kuroshio meridional transport. The ocean warming has caused rapid northward migration of geographic isotherms and seasonal phenological changes (spring arrives earlier and fall begins later than normal), resulting in the changes in the growth rhythm, geographic distribution, community structure and ecological service functions of marine organisms. Frequent extreme MHWs have caused devastating disasters to some marine ecosystems such as coral reefs and aquaculture. In the future, the mid-high latitudes of CCS will be simultaneously exposed to the enhanced warming, deoxygenation, acidification, and reduced productivity; and sever climate tipping points of marine ecosystems such coral reef ecosystems in the South China Sea are very likely to triggered in the near future. There is an urgent need for in-depth research on the physical processes and predictability of marine heatwaves, as well as the forecasting and early warning systems. Furthermore, transformative climate action measures should be developed to enhance the climate resilience of ocean systems, and strong mitigation measures need to be taken as soon as possible to slowdown global warming.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-05-13
  • 最后修改日期:2023-08-29
  • 录用日期:2023-10-20
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-11-08
  • 出版日期: