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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

西南涡发展演变机理之低涡发展指数探索
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中国气象局成都高原气象研究所

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(U2242202),中国气象局西南区域气象中心创新团队基金(XNQYCXTD-202202),四川省自然科学(2022NSFSC0021),科技部国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3003902)


Exploration of the development and evolution mechanism of the Southwest Vortex from a new vortex development indexLu Ping1, 2
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    摘要:

    本文基于ERA5(0.25?×0.25?)逐时再分析资料,分析了长距离移动和稳定少动两次高影响西南涡过程,认为中低层辐合和假相当位温这两个物理量是影响低涡发展演变的关键物理因子,由此定义了一个低涡发展指数。通过对比分析低涡发展指数与西南涡及降水演变的关系,认为:(1)无论是远距离位移还是稳定少动的西南涡过程,低涡发展指数都可以指示出低涡强度、位置的发展演变趋势,并能解释强低涡过程期间出现其它弱闭合低压或一涡多心的现象,同时还揭示了西南涡的移动机理。(2)低涡发展指数不仅能指示出低涡降水的强度及落区,还能反映西南涡与降水之间互存共生的现象,在一定程度上解释了“雨生涡”和“涡生雨”都是合理的。因此低涡发展指数对于高影响西南涡暴雨的落区和降水中心位置的预报有积极的意义。

    Abstract:

    Based on the ERA5 (0.25° × 0.25°) hourly reanalysis data, this paper analyzes two different high-impact Southwest Vortex (SWV) processes with long-distance movement and stagnation over local area. It is suggested that two physical variables, the low- to mid-level convergence and pseudo-equivalent potential temperature, are the key factors influencing the development and evolution of the vortex. According to these findings, a vortex development index is defined in this study. By comparing the vortex development index with the evolution of the SWV and precipitation, we found that: (1) the vortex development index could indicate the development and evolution trend of the intensity and position of the vortex, whether it is a long-distance moving or a local stationary SWV process. The index could also reveal the occurrence of other weak closed lows or multi-core vortices during intense vortex events, as well as the moving mechanism of the SWV. (2) The vortex development index not only indicates the intensity and coverage area of vortex precipitation but also reflects the coexistence phenomenon between the SWV and precipitation, thereby providing a possible explanation for both the "rain-induced vortex" and the "vortex-induced rain" phenomenon. Results of this study suggest the positive significance of the vortex development index in the forecast of both the precipitation distribution and the position of the precipitation center of the high-impact SWV heavy rainfall events.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-07-06
  • 最后修改日期:2023-11-21
  • 录用日期:2023-12-08
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-18
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