双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

基于生成对抗网络的强对流临近预报方法及其在中国东部地区的应用评估
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作者单位:

1.南京信息工程大学;2.江苏省气象台

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基金项目:

中国气象局创新发展专项、中国气象局重点创新团队、国家自然科学基金。


Severe convection nowcasting based on generative adversarial network and its application evaluation in eastern China
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Affiliation:

1.Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing;2.Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory

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    摘要:

    为了缓解深度学习雷达回波外推预报中普遍存在的“模糊”问题,发展了一种有机融合PhyDNet和频域匹配生成对抗网络的雷达回波外推预报方法(PhyDNetSGAN),能够预测江苏及其上游地区未来3h的雷达组合反射率因子,通过对比PhyDNetSGAN、PhyDNet(未使用生成对抗网络)、PhyDNetGAN和Sprog(改进的光流法)验证了新方法在强对流天气临近预报中的适用性。结果表明:(1)与光流法Sprog相比,深度学习方法能更好地体现强回波的非线性发展演变过程。(2)增加生成对抗网络的PhyDNetGAN和PhyDNetSGAN较其他两组试验能够得到更精细且符合预报员主观认知的雷达回波外推结果,缓解“模糊”问题。(3)新提出的PhyDNetSGAN不仅能够改善预报精细度,还能更好地捕获强回波的形态、位置和中心强度,从而获得更优的预报技巧表现,延长有效预报时长。(4)新提出的综合TS、Bias和FID的综合评分指标较TS能够更好地反应与预报员主观体验相一致的临近预报检验效果。

    Abstract:

    In order to alleviate the common "fuzzy" problem in deep learning radar echo extrapolation prediction, a radar echo extrapolation prediction method (PhyDNetSGAN) with organic fusion of PhyDNet and frequency-domain matching generative adversarial network was developed, which can predict the combined radar reflectance factor in Jiangsu and its upstream region in the future 3h. By comparing PhyDNetSGAN, PhyDNet (without generative adversarial network), PhyDNetGAN and Sprog (improved optical flow method), the applicability of the new method in severe convection weather prediction was verified. The results show that: (1) Compared with Sprog, the deep learning method can better reflect the nonlinear evolution of strong echoes. (2) PhyDNetGAN and PhyDNetSGAN with the addition of generative adversarial network can obtain more refined radar echo extrapolation results in line with the subjective cognition of forecasters than the other two groups of experiments and alleviate the "fuzzy" problem. (3) The newly proposed PhyDNetSGAN can not only improve the forecast precision, but also better capture the form, position and central intensity of strong echoes, so as to obtain better prediction skills and extend the effective forecast time. (4) Compared with TS, the newly proposed comprehensive score index of TS, Bias and FID can better reflect the test effect of approaching forecast which is consistent with the subjective experience of forecasters.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2023-07-09
  • 最后修改日期:2023-10-11
  • 录用日期:2023-12-26
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