双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

东亚-太平洋及欧洲-大西洋海陆热力差异对中国夏季降水均值和变率的影响
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1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室;2.宜兴市防雷中心

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国家自然科学基金41975083


Effects of sea-land thermal differences over East Asia-Pacific and Europe-Atlantic regions on mean and variability of summer precipitation in China
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Affiliation:

1.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science Technology;2.Yixing City Lightning Protection Center

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    摘要:

    中国夏季降水主要受东亚夏季风的影响,而影响季风的主要因素为海陆热力差异。本文基于1979-2022年的ECMWF/ERA5再分析资料和CN05.1格点化降水数据集,定义了欧洲-大西洋海陆热力差异和两类东亚-太平洋海陆热力差异:东亚-北太平洋和东亚-副高热力差异,研究了三个海陆热力差异特征和中国夏季降水的时空特征,分析了海陆热力差异对中国夏季降水均值和变率的作用以及变率对极端降水的影响。结果表明:(1)东北地区、长江下游地区,青藏高原地区的降水受海陆热力差异的影响较为显著,这些地区夏季降水均值和变率的变化使得这些地区的极端降水发生的概率发生显著变化。(2)欧洲-大西洋和两类东亚-太平洋海陆热力差异在过去40年里保持增加的趋势并在未来中排放情景下呈显著的增加,且陆面增温高于海洋。(3)东北地区降水产生及变化的主要贡献是东亚-北太平洋和东亚-副高海陆热力差异;影响长江下游地区降水的主要贡献是东亚-北太平洋海陆热力差异;对高原地区降水造成影响的主要是东亚-副高和欧洲-大西洋海陆热力差异。最后,LBM模拟的结果进一步证实了欧洲-大西洋热力差异使得高原西部降水增多,东部降水减少。这些发现为深入理解中国夏季降水的时空变化及其背后的物理机制提供了重要依据。

    Abstract:

    The summer precipitation in China is mainly affected by the East Asian summer monsoon, and the main factor affecting the monsoon is the land-sea thermal contrast. Based on the ECMWF / ERA5 reanalysis data and CN05.1 gridded precipitation data set from 1979 to 2022, this paper defines the European-Atlantic land-sea thermal contrast and two types of East Asian-Pacific land-sea thermal contrast: East Asia-North Pacific and East Asia-Subtropical High land-sea thermal contrast. The characteristics of three land-sea thermal contrast and the spatial and temporal characteristics of summer precipitation in China are studied, and the effects of land-sea thermal contrast on the mean and variability of summer precipitation in China and the influence of variability on extreme precipitation are analyzed. The results show that: (1) The precipitation in Northeast China, the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Tibet Plateau is significantly affected by the land-sea thermal contrast. The mean and variability of summer precipitation in these areas are increasing, and the increase of variability increases the probability of extreme precipitation in these areas. (2) The land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia-Pacific and Europe-Atlantic has maintained an increasing trend over the past 40 years and has shown an increasing trend under the medium emission scenario, and the land surface warming is higher than that of the ocean. (3) The main contribution of precipitation generation and change in Northeast China is the land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia-Pacific and East Asia-Subtropical High. The main contribution to the precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River is the land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the Pacific. The main impact on precipitation in the plateau area is the thermal contrast between East Asia-subtropical high and Europe-Atlantic sea and land. Finally, the results of LBM simulation further confirm that the Euro-Atlantic thermal contrast increases the precipitation in the western plateau and decreases the precipitation in the eastern plateau. These findings provide an important basis for us to understand the temporal and spatial variation of summer precipitation in China and the physical mechanism behind it.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-10-09
  • 最后修改日期:2024-04-15
  • 录用日期:2024-04-18
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-19
  • 出版日期: