ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

Influence of Greenhouse Effect on Eastern China Climate Simulated by a High Resolution Regional Climate Model
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    Abstract:

    This study analyses the influence of greenhouse warming on eastern China climate simulated by a high resolution regional climate model. The regional model RegCM3 is nested in one-way mode within a NASA/NCAR finite volume element AGCM (FvGCM). Two sets of multi-decadal simulations at 20-km grid spacing for present day (1961-1990) and future climate (2071-2100, IPCC A2 emission scenario) are conducted. Firstly the FvGCM and RegCM3s simulations of present climate in eastern China are analyzed. Results show that FvGCM is able to reproduce some basic features of the observed mean surface climate, including surface air temperature and precipitation, over eastern China. Comparing with FvGCM, results from RegCM3 simulations show that the high resolution regional model further improves the simulations of both surface air temperature and precipitation climatologies. It can reproduce more detailed structures of surface temperature distribution and reduce, in some extent, cold bias in the FvGCM simulations. Furthermore, it reveals that the observed heavy precipitation center in southeastern China is better simulated by RegCM3 although it may overestimate rainfall induced by topographic forcing. FvGCM gives a wrong location of the high rainfall center with its heavy rainfall belt over the Yangtze River basin.  Significant warming is simulated by RegCM3 at the end of the 21st century under IPCC A2 scenario. The warming of annual temperature ranges from 2.7℃ to 4.2℃, with greater warming in the north of the domain. Greater warming is also simulated in winter with a strong latitudinal gradient. A higher rise of the minimum temperature than the maximum temperature is simulated in the winter half of the year, which leads to a decrease in temperature diurnal variation. This feature is more significant in the northern part of the domain. Increase in the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature may cause more hot spell days in summer and less cold spell days in winter, as well as warmer winter and warmer night. General increase in annual mean precipitation is simulated by RegCM3, in a range of less than 10% to exceeding 30%. Higher increase is found to the north of the Yellow River and in South China. While a reduction of precipitation is found in broad areas in winter, in summer an increase in rainfall dominates the regions. Significant increase in summer precipitation can be found along the Yangtze River, in the southern part of Hebei Province and in South China. Increase of heavy precipitation days are simulated in the whole domain, with substantial increase found in the west and the south of Shanxi Province, the south of Hebei Province and in the north of Fujian Province, the west of Hunan Province. This can consequently lead to a higher frequency of floods in the future.

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  • Received:
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  • Online: April 26,2012
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