ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

Evaluation of the Simulated Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific with IAP AGCM4.1 Based on K-means Method
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1.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.Shandong University

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    Abstract:

    As the atmospheric component of the CAS-ESM1 (The Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model, version 1), IAP-AGCM4.1 (The Institute of Atmospheric Physics Atmospheric General Circulation Model, version 4.1) is developed independently by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. The TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis) is used to identify and evaluate the simulated tropical cyclones (TC) over the western north Pacific with IAP AGCM4.1 during 1979 to 2012. The results show that the IAP AGCM4.1 can reproduce the TCs’ spatial distribution, track, and source reasonably compared to observation, while the model underestimates the number of TC, and only 36% of the observed tropical cyclones over the western north Pacific are simulated. Further analysis based on K-means clustering method shows that the underestimation is mostly due to inability to reproduce the northwestward-turning and westward TC. For the TCs with westward-northwestward, westward-turning and eastward-turning tracks, simulated numbers are about 39%, 48% and 85% of the observed ones, respectively. Moreover, correlation coefficients of seasonal variation between simulation and observation can reach up to 0.91 and duration biases are about 1~2 days. IAP AGCM4.1 performs well in simulating the tracks of the westward-northwestward and eastward-turning TC, with the relative biases ranging between 1%-5% for longitude of centroid, 4%-16% for latitude of centroid, and 5%-15% for latitudinal and meridional standard deviations. In addition, IAP AGCM4.1 reproduces the evolution of environmental circulation and subtropical high quite well during the lifetime of eastward-turning TC, as simulated strength and area index of subtropical high are highly correlated with observation (the correlation coefficient is 0.89). The poor simulations of northwestward-turning and westward TC are likely due to simulated biases of subtropical high.

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History
  • Received:December 24,2019
  • Revised:April 01,2020
  • Adopted:May 14,2020
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