ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

A study on the detection of decadal phase transition and early warning signals of PDO in recent and future 100 years

1.Institude of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration;2.National Climate Center

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    Based on the theory of critical slowing down, the present paper studies the decadal phase transition and early warning signals of PDO Series by using the historical monitoring data of PDO in the past 100 years (1900-2019) and the simulation data of future century model (2006-2100). First, the phase transition time of PDO is determined by Moving t-test technique, and then the early warning signal of phase transition is studied by means of variance and autocorrelation coefficient which characterize the critical slowing phenomenon. The results show that: (1) There have been four significant phase changes in PDO in the recent 100 years, and early warning signals can be given 5-10 years in advance; (2) In the next 100 years, PDO detection shows that PDO will have two decadal transitions around 2040 and 2080, and early warning signals can also be detected 5-10 years in advance; (3) Based on the study of phase transition detection and early warning signals of PDO sequences in recent and future 100 years, the reliability of the variance and autocorrelation coefficients characterizing the critical slowing phenomenon as an early warning signal of abrupt change is demonstrated, which provides an experimental basis for the wide application of this method .

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  • Received:March 10,2020
  • Revised:August 22,2021
  • Adopted:October 18,2021
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