Soil erosion is an important factor affecting ecological environment and agricultural production. The three northeastern provinces of China have an area of 793,300 km2, accounting for 9.3％ of the total land area. It is one of the four black soil regions in the world and an important commodity grain base. In the context of climate change, soil erosion in northeast China and its future risks are still unclear. The main meteorological factor affecting soil erosivity is heavy precipitation. Based on this relationship, observational precipitation data of CN05.1 and APHRODITE were used to reveal the observed characteristics of rainfall erosivity in northeast China. In the mean climate, rainfall erosivity is strongest in the southeast of Northeast China. The rainfall erosivity shows an evident annual cycle. Rainfall erosivity in summer (June-July-August) contributes to more than 80% of the annual total. Based on the observational analysis, the RegCM4 dynamic downscaling model is evaluated and bias-corrected. The future changes of rainfall erosivity in northeast China under different shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) are then examined. With future warming, the mean rainfall erosivity in northeast China will increase by 9.90% and 26.70%, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. Under the high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), higher risk of rainfall erosion is expected, with a rainfall erosivity increase of 2.7 times greater than that under SSP1-2.6 scenario, and 77.69% of area is projected to experience more severe rainfall erosivity. Therefore, it is of great significance to deploy effective emission reduction measures and take the path of sustainable development to reduce the soil erosion risk of black land in northeast China and ensure food security.