ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

The Biogeophysical Impact of Different Land Use Changes on Near-Surface Air Temperature in China under the SSP1-2.6 "Double Carbon" Pathway
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Department of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences

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    Abstract:

    In the past century, changes in land use and land cover have affected climate change mainly through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, and the biogeophysical effects on air temperature in China are still uncertainty. Thus, this study utilizes data of six models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to project the biogeophysical influence of different land use and land covers (i.e., under SSP3-7.0 and SSP1-2.6) on temperature in China during the "double carbon" period under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) SSP1-2.6, and quantitatively analyzes the factors involved. Results indicate that: (1) During the "double carbon" period under SSP1-2.6, the difference of land use and land covers under two scenarios is that forest cover increases in the south of the Qinling-Huaihe River regions and decreases in the north, with greater differences in the carbon-neutral period (?10% to 10%) than in the carbon peak period (?8% to 5%). Differences in forest cover in western China are minimal. (2) National mean, its contribution to future warming during the carbon peak period is ?5%, and it is greater than that during the carbon-neutral period (?1%). (3) This contribution also exhibits regional disparities. In north eastern China, there is a transition from a negative contribution during the carbon peak period (?3.2%) to a positive contribution during the carbon-neutral period (0.4%). This is attributed to the combined results of increased warming effects of ground heat fluxes, clear-sky longwave radiation, and sensible heat fluxes, as well as enhanced cooling effects of surface albedo and latent heat fluxes. South eastern China exhibits negative contributions (?4.1% and ?1.8%) throughout the “double carbon” period, resulting from the cooling effects of cloud radiation and the enhanced warming effects of ground heat fluxes, clear-sky longwave radiation, and sensible heat fluxes. In western China, the positive contribution during the carbon peak period (4.9%) shifts to a negative contribution during the carbon-neutral period (?1.8%), primarily due to the transition of warming effects from ground heat fluxes and clear-sky radiation to cooling effects. Overall, the results suggest that forest cover in the ssp126-ssp370Lu experiment generally has a cooling effect during the "double carbon" period under SSP1-2.6, partially mitigating the impacts of greenhouse gases; however, regional disparities exist.

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History
  • Received:March 19,2024
  • Revised:December 31,2024
  • Adopted:February 20,2025
  • Online: March 04,2025
  • Published: