ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

The FGOALS-g2 Simulation of Global Monsoon Extreme Precipitation and Future Projection
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    Abstract:

    Based on historical simulation and future projection under the RCP8.5 scenario by model FGOALS-g2, the authors have analyzed the extreme climate indices and associated potential future changes in the 21st century over global monsoon region. Results indicate that FGOALS-g2 can reasonably reproduce the spatial pattern of climate state and interannual variability of extreme precipitation indices. However, precipitation is underestimated by FGOALS-g2 in heavy rainfall centers over Asian monsoon region. Due to the overestimation (underestimation) of the frequency of extreme rain (moderate and heavy rain), the extreme precipitation (total precipitation) simulated by FGOALS-g2 is stronger (weaker) than observations. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, extreme precipitation, total precipitation, and precipitation intensity all tend to increase over global monsoon region. The most significant change occurs over North America (22% and 17% for extreme precipitation and precipitation intensity, respectively) and Australia (37% for precipitation amount). The projected increase in extreme precipitation may be attributed to the increase in precipitable water. However, the projected maximum number of consecutive days with daily precipitation less than 1 mm (hereafter CDD) will increase over land areas within global monsoon region but decrease over ocean areas of global monsoon region. To the end of the 21st century (2076-2095), projected CDD will decrease (increase) by 30% (40%) over South America (Australia), which is associated with the increase (decrease) in the frequency of rainfall events with daily precipitation less than 1 mm.

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History
  • Received:August 07,2015
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 24,2016
  • Published: