ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

The Ability of CMIP5 Models in Capturing the Asymmetric Impact of the Spring Arctic Oscillation on the Following Winter El Niño—Southern Oscillation
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    Abstract:

    Previous observational studies have demonstrated that the spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) has a significant asymmetric impact on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the following winter. In particular, the positive spring AO year can exert a notable impact on the following winter El Niño event. However, the impact of the negative spring AO on the following winter La Niña is weak. In this study, the authors examined the ability of the 30 coupled models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in reproducing the observed asymmetric impact of the spring AO on the ENSO during the following winter. The results show that out of the 30 models, only two models (i.e., CNRM-CM5 and GISS-E2-H-CC) can well capture the observed significant spring AO-ENSO relation. These two models were further employed to examine the asymmetric impact of the spring AO on the following winter ENSO. The CNRM-CM5 model could reasonably reproduce the observed asymmetric relationship between the spring AO and the winter ENSO. In particular, in the CNRM-CM5 model, the positive (negative) spring AO could (could not) lead to an El Niño-like (La Niña-like) sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical central-eastern Pacific. By contrast, in the GISS-E2-H-CC model, the significant impact of the spring AO on the subsequent winter ENSO is symmetric; that is, the positive (negative) spring AO could result in significant positive (negative) SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific during the following winter. The possible factors responsible for the asymmetric/symmetric relationship of the spring AO with the following winter ENSO in the CNRM-CM5/GISS-E2-H-CC models were further examined. For the CNRM-CM5 model, a significant anomalous cyclone and positive precipitation anomalies could be seen over the subtropical western-central North Pacific during the positive spring AO year. The positive precipitation anomalies play an important role in maintaining the westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific via Gill-type atmospheric response. The westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific further impact the following winter El Niño event by triggering eastward propagating and downwelling Kelvin waves. However, during the negative spring AO year, the associated anomalous anticyclone, and negative precipitation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific are weak. Hence, significant easterly wind anomalies cannot be induced over the tropical western Pacific, leading to a weak connection of the negative spring AO with the following La Niña event. Hence, the CNRM-CM5 model can well reproduce the observed asymmetric impact of the spring AO on the following winter ENSO. In comparison, for the GISS-E2-H-CC model, significant positive (negative) precipitation anomalies could be seen in the subtropical western North Pacific during the positive (negative) spring AO year, which could induce clear westerly (easterly) wind anomalies in the tropical western Pacific via Gill-type atmospheric response. The resultant westerly (easterly) wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific further contribute to the formation of the El Niño (La Niña)-like SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific during the following winter. Hence, the spring AO has a symmetric impact on the following winter ENSO in the GISS-E2-H-CC model. Further analysis suggests that the model’s ability in capturing the observed asymmetric impact of the spring AO on the following winter ENSO may also be partly related to the model’s ability in capturing the observed spatial structure of the spring AO.

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History
  • Received:March 03,2019
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: March 20,2020
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