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基于海气耦合模式的山西省夏季降水统计降尺度预测研究
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山西省农业科技攻关项目20130312012,公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201406022,山西省气象科研项目152020010807


A Statistical Downscaling Model for Summer Rainfall over Shanxi Province Based on CGCM/NCC Model
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    摘要:

    基于中国气象局国国家气候中心海气耦合模式(CGCM/NCC)预测产品和山西省50站夏季降水资料,利用典型因子回归的方法(CCA),建立了山西省夏季降水的统计降尺度预测模型。该预测模型选取了CGCM/NCC模式夏季500hPa高度场和海平面气压作为预测因子,分别选取了长江中下游地区和热带中东太平洋作为预报关键区。统计降尺度模型对2007~2014年山西省夏季降水的回算较模式原始结果有显著提高,除2008年外,空间距平相似系数(ACC)均通过了0.01的显著性检验,时间相关系数(TCC)在山西省大部分地区都有显著提高,最大可达0.6,降水预测(PS)评分在70分以上。检验结果显示,基于CCA降尺度方法建立的预测模型对山西省夏季降水模态预测的准确率较高且比较稳定,其预测效果远高于CGCM/NCC直接输出降水结果。

    Abstract:

    A statistical downscaling system for forecasting summer precipitation at stations in Shanxi Province has been developed in this study on the basis of real-time products of numerical prediction from the CGCM/NCC (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Climate Model of National Climate Center) and observational data collected at stations in Shanxi Province. Geopotential height at 500 hPa and sea level pressure in the summer of the current year from the CGCM/NCC simulations are selected as the two predictors; the middle- to lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the tropical central-eastern Pacific are taken as two key regions. The statistical downscaling hindcast of the 2007-2014 summer precipitation over Shanxi Province has improved the prediction compared with the original prediction of the CGCM/NCC. Except for the summer of 2008, the spatial anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) are statistically significant at the 0.01 level, and the temporal correlation coefficients over most areas of Shanxi Province have also increased significantly with a maximum value of 0.6 by the downscaling scheme. The PS score can be greater than 70. Sample tests indicate that the downscaling method based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is applicable in the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly across most of Shanxi with high accuracy and stable performance. Predictions by the downscaling method are much better than the original predictions from the CGCM/NCC.

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张岳军,周静,韩照宇,郝智文,李芬,李淑娟.2016.基于海气耦合模式的山西省夏季降水统计降尺度预测研究[J].气候与环境研究,21(3):323-332. ZHANG Yuejun, ZHOU Jing, HAN Zhaoyu, HAO Zhiwen, LI Fen, LI Shujuan.2016. A Statistical Downscaling Model for Summer Rainfall over Shanxi Province Based on CGCM/NCC Model[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],21(3):323-332.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-09-18
  • 最后修改日期:2016-02-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-05-26
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