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三种高分辨率格点降水预报检验方法的对比
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中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室开放基金项目CAMF-201606,陕西省气象局面上科研项目2016M-1,中国气象局预报员专项CMAYBY2014-070


Comparison of Three Verification Methods for High-Resolution Grid Precipitation Forecast
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    摘要:

    客观有效的评估高分辨率模式格点降水的预报能力,不仅是模式发展中的基础问题,而且直接关系到目前中国气象局主推的格点天气预报业务。以ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)模式高分辨率降水格点预报资料、CMORPH(NOAA Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method)卫星与全国3×104个自动观测站的逐时降水量融合资料为基础,选择2015年6~8月55个降水个例,研究传统检验方法、面向对象MODE(Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation)方法、以及邻域法在高分辨率格点降水预报检验中的适用性及优缺点,以期为高分辨率格点降水的预报性能评估提供参考。主要结论如下:(1)尽管点对点的传统方法在高分辨率格点降水检验中存在一定的局限,但传统方法能够在空间上表现高分辨率格点降水预报技巧的地域性差异,在时间上刻画预报的整体性能,对高分辨率格点预报性能评估仍然具有重要的适用价值;(2)邻域法的显著优点在于一方面能够通过变换邻域窗获得不同空间尺度上的传统预报技巧,另一方面独有的FSS(Fractions SkillScore)技巧评分能够表现预报相对于观测降水在格点数量上的比值,结合FSS和不同邻域窗上的传统技巧评分,可以判别在多大空间尺度上能够获得较好的预报技巧;(3)MODE方法在变换卷积半径的基础上提取降水对象,基于降水对象不仅能统计模式的传统技巧评分和预报性能的尺度变化,还可以表现降水对象的质心距离、轴角、面积、强度、综合收益、位移距离等多种属性,这些属性首先为用户提供了模式预报性能的多视角表现,其次从侧面定量描述了模式对天气系统发展快慢、槽脊强弱等预报误差,具有独特的优势,但如何应用对象属性来提高实际的预报能力还存在一些困难。

    Abstract:

    Effective and objective assessment of the high-resolution numerical model ability to forecast gridded precipitation is not only the basis for the development of the model, but also directly related to the main objective of China Meteorological Administration to improve gridded weather forecast. Based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) forecast of high resolution gridded precipitation data, CMORPH (NOAA Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method) satellite data, and the fusion of hourly precipitation data collected at 30000 automatic weather stations in China, 55 precipitation cases of high resolution gridded precipitation forecast from June 2015 to August 2015 were selected for verification. Advantages and disadvantages of the traditional method were compared to that of the object-oriented MODE (Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation) method and the neighborhood method to provide references for the evaluation of high-resolution gridded precipitation forecasting. The main results are:(1) Although the traditional point to point method has some limitations in verifying high-resolution gridded precipitation forecast, the traditional method can reveal regional differences in high-resolution gridded precipitation forecast skill, and depict the overall temporal performance of the model forecast. Thereby it still has important practical value for performance evaluation of high resolution gridded forecasts. (2) one significant advantage of the neighborhood method is that it can obtain traditional forecasting techniques on different spatial scales by varying the neighborhood window. On the other hand, the unique skill of this method to obtain the FSS (Fractions Skill Score) score can provide the ratio of the number of points with precipitation between observed and predicted precipitation. Combining the traditional techniques with neighborhood FSS scores on different neighborhood windows, the spatial scale on which the model has a better performance of forecast can be determined. (3) In the MODE precipitation verification method, an object is extracted on the basis of conversion convolution radius. Such objects can not only provide information similar to that obtained by the traditional techniques such as forecast skill scores and scale-depending forecast performance, but also show the centroid distance between precipitation objects, the axis angle, size, strength, comprehensive income, displacement distance, etc. These attributes can provide information of the model forecast performance from multiple perspectives and quantify errors of the weather system development speed, strength and other forecast variables. Thereby this method has unique advantages. However, there still exist some difficulties regarding how to improve the practical forecasting capability using these object attributes.

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潘留杰,薛春芳,张宏芳,王建鹏,姚静.2017.三种高分辨率格点降水预报检验方法的对比[J].气候与环境研究,22(1):45-58. PAN Liujie, XUE Chunfang, ZHANG Hongfang, WANG Jianpeng, YAO Jing.2017. Comparison of Three Verification Methods for High-Resolution Grid Precipitation Forecast[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],22(1):45-58.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-01-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-01-20
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