针对2008年北京奥运会安保，建立了一个复杂的系统，包括两个气象预报模式MM5和RAMS6.0以及一个复杂地形上有毒云团的扩散模式CDM。开发了MM5和RAMS6.0接口模块，发展了基于RAMS6.0气象场预报结果的CDM，实现了对未来36 h内的精细气象场和扩散场进行模拟，气象场预报的分辨率为500～1000 m，扩散场的分辨率可达到50～200 m。基于T213数据，应用MM5进行了水平分辨率为3 km的气象场初步预报，将该预报结果转化为RAMS6.0识别的数据格式，应用RAMS6.0对气象场进行分辨率为500～1000 m的精细预报，得出北京奥运会期间的风场与湍流量的预报结果。基于该气象场，根据想定，应用CDM对北京奥运会国家体育场“鸟巢”附近发生化学事件时进行了模拟研究，得出危害范围、危害等级、危害开始时间、危害持续时间等时空分布，为奥运会开幕式化学危害应急提供技术支持。
A comprehensive system was developed to meet the demand of the security guarding during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. In the system, meteorological models, namely, MM5 and RAMS6.0, and a poisonous Clouds Diffusion Model over complex terrain (CDM) were configured in a one-way off-line nested way. In the system, MM5 runs were performed in a real-time operational way with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, which took the output from a global scale model，that is T213 from the Chinese Meteorological Administration（CMA), as the initial and boundary conditions, and the output from MM5 was used to drive the RAMS6.0 runs to provide a 36-hour prediction with a horizontal resolution of 500〖CD*2〗1000 m. The wind and turbulent field outputs from RAMS6.0 were sequentially used to drive CDM runs, which can provide the prediction of the concentration field and the dose field of the chemical clouds. During the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, the system was used to provide the scenario prediction results and the security target was set as the National Stadium (known as the Bird’s Nest), and the quantitative analysis of the hazard risk was performed based on the scenario prediction results.
黄顺祥,刘峰,李慧敏,陈海平.2010.2008年北京奥运会开幕式化学危害预测数值模拟[J].气候与环境研究,15(5):579-583. HUANG Shunxiang, LIU Feng, LI Huimin, CHEN Haiping.2010. Numerical Simulaion of the Chemical Hazard Prediction during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games Opening Ceremony[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],15(5):579-583.复制