利用嵌套网格空气质量预报系统（NAQPMS）的模拟结果，对奥运会开幕前后京津冀地区（2008年7月20日～8月24日）PM10（空气动力学当量直径小于等于10 μm颗粒物）输送特征进行计算与分析。结果表明，气象条件的改变使得在南、东南和东三个方向输入北京地区的PM10通量在数值与分布上发生了较大幅度改变。开幕式前PM10主要自南部边界输送入北京，占输入总通量的55.8%，东南边界次之，占29.4%；奥运期间，二者贡献分别变为38.1%和47%，且入京总通量小时均值由50 t下降为40.2 t。垂直方向上，开幕式前输送能力最大的区间位于边界层中下部，奥运期间（8月8日～24日）边界层内输送的垂直分布较为平均。另外，结合2006年同期气象场及排放清单，通过替换的方法对奥运会期间的空气质量状况进行了情景模拟，结果表明：气象场的变化在PM10区域输送中起着决定性的作用，但在空气质量的改善方面，污染源减排的效果更为明显。
An investigation of PM10(the synoptic patten and particle matter less than 10 μm) transport variation before and after Beijing Olympics (20 Jul to 24 Aug 2008) was performed through fluxes simulation carried on the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). Results showed large magnitude and distribution variations of PM10 fluxes, essentially southerly, southeasterly, and easterly, due to changes in meteorological conditions. Before the Olympics opening ceremony, the most important fluxes transported into Beijing were southerly (55.8%) and southeasterly (29.4%) versus significant changes in a range of 38.1% and 47% respectively during the Olympic games (8－24 Aug 2008) with significant decrease of total flux from 50 t·h-1 to 40.2 t·h-1. Vertically, the strongest PM10 transport occurred in the lower boundary layer before 8 Aug, while an almost homogeneous transport prevailed during the Olympics games. An in-deep analysis was performed on the impact of meteorology and emissions on PM10 transport and air quality over Beijing through substitution between 2006 and 2008 emissions data in NAQPMS model, proved that, in sight of the important role meteorological conditions played in regional PM10 transport, emissions control (environmental restrictions) during the Olympic Games was more effective in improving air quality over Beijing.
王威,王自发,吴其重,GBAGUIDI Alex,张伟,晏平仲,杨婷.2010.奥运会开幕前后北京PM10输送通量变化及情景分析[J].气候与环境研究,15(5):652-661. WANG Wei, WANG Zifa, WU Qizhong, GBAGUIDI Alex, ZHANG Wei, YAN Pingzhong, YANG Ting.2010. Variation of PM10 Flux and Scenario Analysis before and after the Olympic Opening Ceremony in Beijing[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],15(5):652-661.复制