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南京地区霾预报方法试验研究
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南京市科技计划项目201001070,南京市气象业务技术团队建设项目NJ201003,南京社会发展项目200701100


An Experimental Study of Haze Prediction Method in Nanjing
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    摘要:

    支持向量机(SVM)方法是基于统计学理论的一种新的机器学习方法,对解决小样本条件下的非线性问题非常有效。利用2004~2007年南京站的逐日常规观测资料以及同期南京市环境质量监测点的逐日污染物浓度资料,使用SVM分类和回归方法分别建立了南京地区霾日分类预报模型和有霾日14时(北京时间,下同)能见度预报模型。预报试验结果表明:南京地区霾日的SVM分类预报结果,Ts(Threat scores)评分均在04以上;而有霾日14时能见度的SVM回归预报结果,按能见度误差范围为±3 km算,准确率均达到了86%以上;加入当天08时新资料的订正预报模型,其预报结果优于起始预报模型。二者的预报结果较为满意,可以给实际业务预测提供参考。

    Abstract:

    The Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a new machine learning method based on the statistical learning theory and it is very useful to solve nonlinear problems of short time series. Based on the daily observations obtained from the Nanjing meteorological station and the daily measured contamination data obtained from the Nanjing environmental quality monitoring station from 2004 to 2007,prediction models of hazeday classification and visibility at 1400 LST in haze days in Nanjing are built by the SVM method. The results show that the threat scores(Ts)of hazeday classification forecast are all over 04 and the precision of visibility at 1400 LST in haze days can reach 86% by considering 3 km as the error bounds. Otherwise,the forecast models which are revised by the new data at 0800 LST of that day are better than the beginning forecast models according to the results. Both SVM forecast models perform satisfactorily and can refer references to real business.

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毛宇清,孙燕,姜爱军,陈曲,沈澄.2011.南京地区霾预报方法试验研究[J].气候与环境研究,16(3):273-279. MAO Yuqing, SUN Yan, JIANG Aijun, CHEN Qu, SHEN Cheng.2011. An Experimental Study of Haze Prediction Method in Nanjing[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],16(3):273-279.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2011-12-01
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