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基于《翁同龢日记》天气记录重建的北京1860~1897年的降水量
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全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划2010CB950102,国家自然科学青年基金项目41001122、 40701021,地理科学与资源研究所自主部署创新基金项目200905006


Reconstructed Precipitation in Beijing during 1860-1897 Based on the Weather Records from “Diary of Weng Tonghe”
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    摘要:

    私人日记中的天气记录是重建历史时期高分辨率降水量序列的重要资料。通过摘录、整理《翁同龢日记》中晴、雨 (雪) 记录,统计了逐月降水日数,并利用降水量与降水日数之间的转换方程,重建了北京1860~1897年的夏季和年降水量。将重建的降水量与当时的器测降水量和依据“晴雨录”重建的降水量进行对比,综合这3种资料重新估算了北京1860~1897年的年降水量,并且将估算降水量与旱涝等级进行了对比。结果表明:(1) 依据《翁同龢日记》记录的降水日数重建的降水量是基本可靠的,20年资料完整年份的年降水量平均为611.5 mm,不过由于重建方法对偏涝年降水量的估算普遍偏低,致使此重建结果低于重新估算的平均年降水量 (662.6 mm);(2) 重新估算的1860~1897年平均年降水量为701.3 mm,均方差为202 mm,与20世纪后半期相比,历史时期的降水量略大(未通过显著性检验),而古、今降水量的年际变率大致相当;(3) 1891年的器测降水量较实际偏高,1895年的则较实际偏低;并且有些年份 (如1869、1863、1885、1889和1887年)的旱涝等级尚需进一步验证。另外,验证了《翁同龢日记》中的晴雨(雪)记录在定量重建降水量方面的价值,并指出了其不足,为今后利用私人日记定量重建降水量提供了参考。

    Abstract:

    Daily weather records from private diaries are important proxy data for reconstructing historical precipitation. The authors extracted daily weather records from “Diary of Weng Tonghe” and calculated the monthly rain/snow days using these records. The annual and summer precipitation in Beijing during 1860-1897 was reconstructed using the conversion functions relating precipitation with rain/snow days. Finally, by integrating the reconstruction with the instrumental data and the reconstruction from Sunshine Rainfall Records (SRR), the precipitation during 1860-1897 in Beijing was reestimated. The results show: (1) The reconstruction based on the rain/snow days from “Diary of Weng Tonghe” is generally reliable and the reconstructed annual precipitation was about 611.5 mm; however, the precipitation in relative flood years was underestimated by the conversion functions; (2) the reestimated annual precipitation was about 701.3 mm, which might be more than that in the later half of 20th century; (3) the instrumental precipitation record in 1891 may be more than the actual value and the instrumental precipitation record in 1895 may be lower than the actual value; dry-wet grades in 1869, 1863, 1885, 1889, and 1887 may be not consistent with actual conditions. This research demonstrates the daily weather records from private diaries have great potential to reconstruct historical precipitation, but it is worthy to note that lower biases existed in the present reconstruction.

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张学珍,方修琦,郑景云,郝志新.2011.基于《翁同龢日记》天气记录重建的北京1860~1897年的降水量[J].气候与环境研究,16(3):322-328. ZHANG Xuezhen, FANG Xiuqi, ZHENG Jingyun, HAO Zhixin.2011. Reconstructed Precipitation in Beijing during 1860-1897 Based on the Weather Records from “Diary of Weng Tonghe”[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],16(3):322-328.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2011-12-01
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