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沙尘预报客观检验中最优实况资料和圆插值半径选择研究
作者:
作者单位:

国家气象中心,北京 100081

作者简介:

孟庆涛,男,1986年出生,工程师,主要从事中小尺度灾害性天气分析和研究。E-mail: mengqt@cma.gov.cn

通讯作者:

基金项目:

国家气象中心预报员专项Y201517


Research on the Selection of the Optimal Observations and Radius of Circular Interpolation during Objective Verification of Sand-Dust Forecasts
Author:
Affiliation:

National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

Fund Project:

the Forecaster Program of the National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration Y201517the Forecaster Program of the National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration ( Y201517)

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    摘要:

    使用2012~2014年每年3~5月CUACE(China Meteorological Administration Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment)模式地面沙尘浓度格点预报产品,预报员预报等级产品、实况地面观测沙尘等级和特征站观测PM10(空气动力学当量直径小于等于10 μm的颗粒物,即可吸入颗粒物)资料,并针对CUACE模式格点产品,选取不同半径对格点产品进行圆插值,从而对2012~2014年共25次沙尘过程值,采取3年总样本计算TS(Threat Score)评分,对格点产品适合的圆插值半径和预报产品适合的检验实况资料进行研究,结论如下:(1)如实况采用沙尘等级,模式插值半径与TS评分在浮尘或扬沙等级成近似线性下降关系,而在沙尘暴以上等级TS评分与插值半径关系几乎不大,最优插值半径可选为最小插值半径0.5°(经度/纬度);如实况采用PM10资料,TS评分在浮尘或扬沙等级根据半径不同变化较为剧烈,沙尘暴以上等级TS评分与插值半径关系不大,可以采用浮尘或扬沙平均线3.5°为平均最优插值半径。如果沙尘过程较弱,插值半径可适当减小,以1°最合适;(2)对CUACE模式预报产品,沙尘等级观测TS评分可用性要优于PM10资料,但两者在沙尘暴以上等级评分差别不大,总体上CUACE模式最优检验实况资料可选为沙尘等级观测资料。对预报员沙尘预报产品,观测沙尘等级TS评分要远高于PM10,预报员沙尘预报产品最优检验实况资料为观测沙尘等级资料。

    Abstract:

    Utilizing the ground sand concentration net grid products forecasted by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment (CUACE) numerical model, human forecasts of sand-dust rank products, observed ground sand-dust rank, and the observed particulate pollution (PM10), this paper calculated the Threat Score (TS) from 2012 to 2014, which contained a total of 25 processes of sand-dust weather, to select the best observations and radii of circular interpolation for an objective verification of the sand-dust forecast. For the net grid CUACE numerical model products, different radii were chosen by using the circular interpolation to generate the interpolated station sand-dust forecast. Several conclusions were drawn from the studyresults (1) For the sand-dust rank observations, the radii approximately linearly declined with TS in the float dust-dust rank; the TS rarely changed when the radius changed in the sand-dust rank above the sandstorm, and the best radius selected was the minimum radius, i.e., 0.5° (longitude/latitude). For the PM10, the TS changed markedly when the radius changed in the float dust, but rarely changed when the radius changed in the sand rank above the sandstorm, when the best radius selected averaged 3.5°. If the sand was very weak, the radius could be properly decreased to 1°. (2) For the CUACE numerical model product, the usability of the TS of the observed sand-dust rank was better than the observed PM10, while the two were nearly the same in rank above the sandstorm. Thus, the best observation used for the objective verification of the CUACE numerical model product, generally, was observed ground sand rank. For the human sand rank forecast, the TS of the observed ground sand-dust rank was much higher than the PM10, and the best observation for the verification was the observed ground sand rank.

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引用本文

孟庆涛.2019.沙尘预报客观检验中最优实况资料和圆插值半径选择研究[J].气候与环境研究,24(6):735-740. MENG Qingtao.2019.Research on the Selection of the Optimal Observations and Radius of Circular Interpolation during Objective Verification of Sand-Dust Forecasts[J].Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],24(6):735-740.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-06-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-12-23
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