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基于PMIP3和CMIP5模拟结果的过去千年特征时段北极涛动的变率特征及成因分析
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国家重点研发计划2016YFA0600401,国家自然科学基金项目41971021、41420104002、41671197、41631175,中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金SKLLQG1820、SKLLQG1930,中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(B类)XDB40000000


Characteristics and Cause Analyses of Arctic Oscillation Variability during the Typical Periods in Last Millennium Based on PMIP3 and CMIP5 Simulations
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    摘要:

    利用参与第三次古气候模式评估比较计划(Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III,PMIP3)过去千年气候模拟试验以及参与第五次耦合模式评估比较计划(Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)全强迫历史情景试验的9个地球系统模式模拟试验结果,对过去千年3个特征时段(中世纪气候异常期、小冰期和现代暖期)北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, AO)的变率及成因进行了分析。通过与NCEP再分析资料的对比发现,模式能够较好地模拟出AO的空间模态及年际变化周期,且大部分模式能够模拟出过去50年AO的增强趋势。过去千年3个特征时段中,不同模式对中世纪气候异常期AO位相的模拟并不一致,但大部分模式显示小冰期AO基本呈现负位相,而现代暖期则表现为显著的正位相,与重建结果一致。基于多模式集合平均的机制分析表明,中世纪气候异常期北极地区海平面气压变化不显著,小冰期北极地区海平面气压显著偏正,现代暖期海平面气压显著偏负,这与现代暖期北极温度偏高而小冰期北极温度偏低有关。过去千年中,小冰期和现代暖期的AO变率分别受自然外强迫和人为外强迫的影响。

    Abstract:

    The variability and corresponding mechanisms of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) during three typical periods, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Little Ice Age (LIA), and Present Warm Period (PWP), in the last millennium were analyzed using simulations from nine Earth system models (ESMs) from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) Last Millennium experiment and Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical experiments. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, the ESMs reasonably reproduce the AO spatial pattern and inter-annual period, and most ESMs reproduce the AO strengthening trend in the last five decades. Simulations show that there is no consistent AO phase during the MCA among the different models. The eight models simulated generally negative AO phases during the LIA and positive phases during the PWP. These simulated results are consistent with previous studies using proxy reconstructions and observations. The multi-model ensemble mean indicates that there is no significant sea level pressure (SLP) change over the Arctic region during the MCA. The SLP anomalies over the Arctic region are significantly positive during the LIA and significantly negative during the PWP. These changes in SLP are related to the anomalous lower temperature during the LIA and higher temperature during the PWP over the Arctic region. Our study suggests that the AO variability during the LIA and PWP are influenced by the natural and anthropocentric forcing, respectively.

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陈可凡,宁亮,孙炜毅,覃燕敏,薛姣,刘健,严蜜.2020.基于PMIP3和CMIP5模拟结果的过去千年特征时段北极涛动的变率特征及成因分析[J].气候与环境研究,25(4):429-442. CHEN Kefan, NING Liang, SUN Weiyi, QIN Yanmin, XUE Jiao, LIU Jian, YAN Mi.2020.Characteristics and Cause Analyses of Arctic Oscillation Variability during the Typical Periods in Last Millennium Based on PMIP3 and CMIP5 Simulations[J].Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],25(4):429-442.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-01-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-07-28
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