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ISSN 1006-9585

CN 11-3693/P

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我国西北地区干湿变化特征及其未来预估
作者:
作者单位:

1.北京林业大学水土保持学院;2.西北农林科技大学资源环境学院;3.中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室

作者简介:

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基金项目:

国家重点基础研究发展计划,国家自然科学基金,省自然科学基金


Dry and wet variation characteristics in Northwest China and Its Future Prediction
Author:
Affiliation:

1.College of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University;2.College of Natural Resources and Environment,Northwest A&F University;3.CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia (REC-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)

Fund Project:

National Key Research and Development Program of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China; Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province

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    摘要:

    气候变暖背景下我国西北地区的气候变化在近几十年呈现出暖湿化特征。本文基于降水、土壤湿度、径流量和干旱指数等多种气象要素,进一步系统分析研究了近60年我国西北地区的干湿特征演变规律,并利用最新的第六次国际耦合模式比较计划 (CMIP6)多模式模拟结果对该区域未来干湿变化特征进行了预估。结果显示:近60年来我国西北地区的降水量、土壤湿度和径流量均呈现出由东南向西北递减的空间分布格局;冷季的降水量和径流量明显低于暖季,但土壤湿度和干旱指数在冷暖季节差异不显著。西北地区年降水量、土壤湿度和干旱指数均呈现显著增加的趋势,增幅分别为5.07 mm/10a、3.89 mm/10a和0.26 /10a,特别是2000年后增加的趋势更显著,且变湿幅度最大主要出现在西北西部;而径流量在2000年之前呈现明显下降的趋势,而2000年后显著增加。在未来气候变化情境下,21世纪中期(2031~2060年)和后期(2071~2100年)西北地区呈现出湿润化的趋势,并且21世纪后期的湿润化程度更显著,高等排放情景(SSP5-8.5)比中等排放情景(SSP2-4.5)下湿润化更明显。本研究可为我国西北地区气候变化的影响评估提供参考依据。

    Abstract:

    Under the background of climate warming, the climate change in Northwest China has become warmer and wetter in recent decades. Based on various meteorological elements such as precipitation, soil moisture, runoff and drought index, this paper further systematically analyzes and studies the evolution of dry and wet characteristics in Northwest China in the past 60 years, and forecasts the future changes in dry and wet characteristics by using the latest multi-model simulation results of the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The results show that the precipitation, soil moisture and runoff in Northwest China in recent 60 years showed a spatial distribution pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest. The precipitation and runoff in the cold season are significantly lower than that in the warm season, but the differences of soil moisture and drought index in cold and warm seasons are not significant. The annual precipitation, soil moisture and drought index in Northwest China showed significant increasing trends, with the increasing rates of 5.07 mm/10a, 3.89 mm/10a and 0.26 /10a respectively, and especially after 2000, the increasing trends are more obvious. The largest humidification range mainly occurred in the west of Northwest China. The humidification range in the warm season was higher than that in the cold season. However, the runoff showed an obvious downward trend before 2000 and increased significantly after 2000. Under the future climate change scenario, the northwest region shows a trend of humidification in the middle of the 21st century (2031~2060) and the later period (2071~2100), and the humidification degree in the later period of the 21st century is more significant. The humidification under the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) is more obvious than that under the medium emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). This study can provide a reference for the impact assessment of climate change in Northwest China.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-08-21
  • 最后修改日期:2023-07-21
  • 录用日期:2023-08-31
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-09-28
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