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ISSN 1006-9585

CN 11-3693/P

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近120年中国干旱年际特征变化及主要的影响因子
作者:
作者单位:

1.中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心;2.中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院

作者简介:

通讯作者:

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金


Interannual Variability and Key Influencing Factors of Drought in China over the Past 120 Years
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Fund Project:

Innovation Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Number: 42221004)

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    摘要:

    基于1901~2020年间标准化降水指数(SPI-12)、标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI-12)和自校准的帕默尔干旱指数(scPDSI)的数据集,通过对比分析,研究了中国区域近120年干旱的长期变化特征,进一步分析了三种干旱指数在中国区域存在差异的原因。结果表明:中国西南、黄土高原、东北南部及新疆南部有显著变干的趋势;西北东部、东北北部和华北有显著变湿的趋势。就干旱事件而言,东北和西北地区干旱持续时间长且强度大,但总体呈现减小的趋势,特别是在西北东部和东北北部;相反,东北南部干旱事件的持续时间和强度均有所增加。全国每年约有282万平方公里遭受干旱,约30.5万平方公里遭受特旱;不同严重程度的干旱面积均呈增加趋势,且在20世纪90年代中期快速增长;此外,干旱面积存在显著的年际和年代际变化特征,周期分别为2~3年和18~22年。进一步对比发现,SPEI-12在湿润地区与SPI-12及scPDSI有较好的一致性,而在干旱半干旱地区一致性相对较差;在湿润地区,降水的盈缺主导该地区的干湿变化,而在干旱半干旱地区,除降水外,气温异常和土壤特性对干旱的贡献也不容忽略.因此,在全球变暖的背景下,针对干旱半干旱地区的研究要更加慎重选择干旱指数。

    Abstract:

    Based on datasets of three drought indices (i.e., the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI-12, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI-12, and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, scPDSI) for the period 1901~2020, this study investigates the long-term characteristics of drought in China over the past 120 years and then explores reasons for their inconsistency. Results indicate a significant drying trend in southwestern China, the Loess Plateau, southern Northeast China, and southern Xinjiang, while regions with significant wetting trends are located in North China, the east part of Northwest China, and the north part of Northeast. As far as drought events are concerned, both Northeast China and Northwest China are characterized by prolonged duration and higher intensity, but the drought tends to decrease in general, especially in eastern Northwest China and northern Northeast China. On the contrary, the duration and intensity of drought events increased in southern Northeast China. There are approximately 2820000km2 of land area each year that has experienced drought, and among them about 30500 km2 of land areas are threatened by extreme drought. Drought severity increases with time, with rapid growth after the mid-1990s. During the past 120 years, drought area exhibits significant interannual and decadal variabilities, with the main periods of 2~3 years and 18~22 years, respectively. In humid regions, three drought indices show good consistency, while in semi-arid and arid regions, their consistency is relatively low. In humid areas, the wet-dry variation is dominated by precipitation. In semi-arid and arid areas, besides precipitation, both temperature anomaly and soil characteristics also play an important role in drought. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the drought index selection over arid and semi-arid areas in the context of global warming.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-08
  • 最后修改日期:2023-12-31
  • 录用日期:2024-02-01
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-05-10
  • 出版日期: