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CMIP5和CMIP6模式对1950-2014年中国陆地植被碳储量的模拟评估
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1.北京师范大学;2.中山大学;3.山西师范大学

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Evaluation of China’s Terrestrial Vegetation Carbon Stocks in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models during 1950-2014
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Beijing Normal University

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    摘要:

    选取两套植被碳密度数据和首次至第九次(1950-2018年)中国森林资源清查数据、基于遥感的土地覆盖数据,对比评估CMIP5和CMIP6地球系统模式对中国陆地植被碳的时空分布及其变化趋势的模拟能力,并进一步探究CMIP5和CMIP6土地变化数据的异同对植被碳储量模拟结果的影响。1995-2004年多模式平均结果表明,CMIP5和CMIP6模式均高估了中国植被碳储量(分别为28.0±6.0 Pg C,25.3±7.7 Pg C; 两套参考数据分别为18.1 Pg C和18.7 Pg C)。CMIP6模式对植被碳空间分布的模拟优于CMIP5模式,其各项泰勒评分指标均显著提高,模式间不确定性有所减小。1950-1990年,CMIP5和CMIP6模拟的中国区植被为碳源,分别为?89.4 Tg C yr-1和?58.2 Tg C yr-1,且于1980年代显著增强,分别为?256.6 Tg C yr-1和?171.0 Tg C yr-1。1990-2014年CMIP5模式中植被碳源减弱(?48.1 Tg C yr-1),而CMIP6模式中植被则转变为碳汇(42.8 Tg C yr-1,P<0.05)。CMIP5与CMIP6模式对中国植被碳源汇模拟的差异和模式的土地变化情况密切相关,相较于CMIP5模式,CMIP6模式的土地变化数据(LUH2)和中国森林资源清查结果更吻合,1980年代后模式森林覆盖度的变化趋势与清查结果更为接近。本研究显示目前用于CMIP模拟的LUH1、LUH2数据与中国森林和农田在过去65年的变化情况有较大差异,采用更准确的土地变化数据对提高下一代CMIP模式植被碳模拟效果具有重要作用。

    Abstract:

    The performances of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Earth System models in simulating China’s terrestrial vegetation biomass were assessed based on two sets of the observation biomass carbon density data, the first to ninth (1950-2018) China Forest Resource Inventory data and a set of remote sensing land cover data. The impacts of different Land-Use Harmonization (LUH) datasets on vegetation biomass simulations of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models were further explored. Our results show that both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models overestimate China"s total vegetation carbon storage during 1995-2004 (28.0 ± 6.0 Pg C for CMIP5, 25.3 ± 7.7 Pg C for CMIP6, and the two sets of reference data are 18.1 Pg C and 18.7 Pg C respectively). The spatial distributions of vegetation carbon density as simulated in CMIP6 models are better than those in CMIP5, with improved Taylor Skill Score(TSS) values and reduced model uncertainties. During 1950-1990, China’s vegetation in CMIP5 and CMIP6 are carbon sources of ?89.4 Tg C yr-1 and ?58.2 Tg C yr-1, respectively. These carbon sources significantly increase to ?256.6 Tg C yr-1 (CMIP5) and ?171.0 Tg C yr-1(CMIP6) in the 1980s. During 1990-2014, in CMIP5 the vegetation carbon sources are much weaker (?48.1 Tg C yr-1) , while in CMIP6 those sources are changed to weak sinks (42.8 Tg C yr-1, P<0.05). The differences of China"s vegetation carbon between CMIP5 and CMIP6 are closely related to their different land change conditions. Compared to Land-Use Harmonization (LUH1) in CMIP5, the forest covers and their changes in LUH2(in CMIP6) are more consistent with China Forest Inventory data and are closer to that since 1980s. This study implies that LUH datasets used in CMIPs have large bias from China’s forest and crop trajectories over the past 65 years. More accurate land cover datasets are essential for improving the simulation of vegetation carbon in the future CMIP models.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-28
  • 最后修改日期:2024-03-21
  • 录用日期:2024-04-15
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-05-10
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