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ISSN 1006-9585

CN 11-3693/P

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云南西南部2010年代5~6月降水突变减少的成因分析
作者:
作者单位:

1.云南省红河州气象局气象灾害防御技术中心;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点室验室;3.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室

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通讯作者:

基金项目:

云南省自然科学重点基金项目(202201AS070069),云南省重点研发计划项目(202203AA080010),云南省气象局科研项目(YZ202314)


Analysis of the Causes of Sudden Decrease in Precipitation in Southwestern Yunnan during May to June in the 2010s
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Honghe Prefecture Meteorological Bureau of Yunnan Province;2.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Fund Project:

Key Fund Project of Natural Science in Yunnan Province (202201AS070069),Key Research and Development Program of Yunnan Province (202203AA080010), Scientific Research Project of Yunnan Provincial Meteorological Bureau (YZ202314)

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    摘要:

    5~6月是云南干季和雨季转换的关键期,其间降水量的多寡对当地农业生产和生态环境有重要影响,也是雨季开始期早晚的重要指标。本文利用1971~2022年云南5~6月站点观测降水资料和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料对该区域5~6月降水的变化特征进行分析研究,结果发现:云南西南部5~6月降水呈现显著下降的趋势,并在2009年发生气候突变,2010年之后显著减少。进一步的分析表明,热带西印度洋海温暖异常,会导致中南半岛北部和云南地区上空200hPa高层大气辐散和700hPa辐合减弱,不利于大气垂直上升运动和降水;还会导致中亚和孟加拉湾地区500hPa高度场正异常,使得中高纬地区东移南下的冷空气和南支槽前的西南气流减弱,不利于云南西南部地区降水天气过程的形成;同时,西印度洋海温暖异常也导致大气低层从南海海域到中南半岛形成异常反气旋环流,云南出现西北风异常,西南风的水汽输送减弱,进而造成云南西南部5~6月降水减少。热带西印度洋海温持续上升及其在2010年代末期的突变增暖,是导致云南西南部降水突变减少的关键驱动因子。

    Abstract:

    The period of May to June marks a critical transition from the dry season to the rainy season in Yunnan, where the amount of precipitation during this time significantly impacts local agricultural production and the ecological environment. Furthermore, it serves as an important indicator of the early or late onset of the rainy season. This study examines the variability characteristics of precipitation in Yunnan during May to June, utilizing observational precipitation data from 1971 to 2022 along with concurrent NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Our analysis reveals a significant decreasing trend in the cumulative precipitation in southwest Yunnan from May to June, with a climate change point occurring in 2009, followed by a marked reduction after 2010. Further investigation indicates that the warm anomaly sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical western Indian Ocean weakens the divergence at 200hPa and convergence at 700hPa over the northern Indo-China Peninsula and Yunnan, hindering vertical atmospheric uplift and precipitation. Additionally, it causes a positive anomaly in the 500hPa height field over Central Asia and the Bay of Bengal, weakening the cold air from mid-to-high latitudes and the southwest airflow ahead of the southern branch trough, thereby inhibiting the formation of precipitation weather processes in southwest Yunnan. Concurrently, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation emerges from the South China Sea to the Indo-China Peninsula in the lower atmosphere, resulting in anomalous northwest winds in Yunnan and a weakened moisture transport from the southwest winds, further contributing to the decrease in precipitation in southwest Yunnan from May to June. The continuous increase in the SST of the tropical western Indian Ocean and its abrupt warming in the late 2010s are identified as the key drivers for the abrupt decrease in precipitation in southwest Yunnan.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-04-17
  • 最后修改日期:2024-07-22
  • 录用日期:2024-09-03
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-21
  • 出版日期: