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融合地理感知注意力的城市内涝预测模型研究
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1.江西信息应用职业技术学院;2.江西省气候中心

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Research on Urban Flooding Prediction Model with Geographical Perception Attention Fusion
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1.Jiangxi vocational &2.technical college of information application;3.Jiangxi climate center

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    摘要:

    夏季根据多发频发的持续性强降水及极端暴雨天气极易引发城市内涝,造成人民生命财产损失。对城市易内涝点水位进行及时且有效的预测,并发布准确的预测信息,是降低城市内涝危害的关键。传统的预测方法依受限于数据精度、模型简化及实时性等问题,难以满足现代城市复杂环境的需求。本文提出了一种基于Transformer的新型城市雨涝预测模型。利用Transformer在时序预测任务上的良好性能,并创新性地融入了地理感知注意力模块(Geospatial-aware Attention Module),以更好地捕捉城市内涝的空间异质性和地理特征,增强了模型对城市地形等空间特征的学习能力,结合南昌市2024年6-8月的降水数据及城市内涝监测站的水位数据开展实验,结果表明本文提出的方法相较原始Transformer模型在城市内涝预测任务中表现更优,且模型仍能保持较好的预测效率,均方根误差较原模型降低0.0006,决定系数较原模型提高了0.071。这表明本文提出了地理感知注意力模块能够有效提升时序模型在城市内涝预测任务中的性能。

    Abstract:

    Persistent heavy precipitation and extreme rainstorms that occur frequently in summer are prone to cause urban flooding, resulting in the loss of people's lives and property. Timely and effective prediction of water level in flood-prone urban areas and release of accurate prediction information is the key to reduce the harm of urban flooding. Traditional prediction methods are limited by data accuracy, model simplicity and real-time problems, which are difficult to meet the needs of modern urban complex environment. In this paper, a new urban rain and flood prediction model based on Transformer is proposed. Utilizing the good performance of transformer on the time series prediction task, and innovatively incorporating the Geospatial-aware Attention Module to better capture the spatial heterogeneity and geographic features of urban flooding, and enhancing the model's ability to learn the spatial features of the city's topography and other spatial features, the model is combined with the precipitation data from June to August in Nanchang City for the year of 2024, and is used to predict the flooding in the city of Nanchang. The experiments are carried out by combining the precipitation data of June-August and the water level data of the urban flood monitoring station in Nanchang 2024, and the results show that the method proposed in this paper performs better in the urban flood prediction task compared with the original transformer model, and the model still maintains a better prediction efficiency, with the root-mean-square error reduced by 0.0006 compared with the original model, and the coefficient of determination improved by 0.071 compared with the original model, which indicates that the geo-aware attention module proposed in this paper can effectively capture spatial heterogeneity and geographic features of the urban flooding. geo-aware attention module can effectively improve the performance of the time-series model in the urban flood prediction task.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-04-09
  • 最后修改日期:2025-08-18
  • 录用日期:2025-09-15
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