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CN 11-3693/P

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我国人工降水亟待解决的问题和发展思路
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“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目2006BAC12B00-01-06,国家自然科学基金项目4077500


Urgent Problems and Thinking of Development for Precipitation Enhancement in China
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    摘要:

    世界上人工降水(或人工增雨)己有60多年历史。几十年来人工降水取得了很大发展和成绩。但是到目前为止,人工降水仍存在着许多科学与技术问题亟待解决,科技水平有待进一步提高。首先需要加强人工降水的若干关键技术研究,如作业云的预报、识别指标、优化作业方法等,最大可能地降低作业的盲目性;人工降水的效果检验问题,一直没有很好地解决;人工降水的科学储备不足等。目前我国人工影响天气需要从战略上、从发展的技术思路上进行变革,要避免走老的发展道路,要积极推进这些问题解决,才有望获得突破性进展。提出了要发展4项人工降水的关键技术方法:开展短时、局地的云和降水预报;要善于识别,选择可人工增雨的作业对象(云);要优化人工降水的作业方法;科学地进行人工降水的效果监测和对比分析。

    Abstract:

    esearch in precipitation enhancement around the world has a history of over sixty years. Over those decades, there have been significant development and progress in precipitation enhancement. However, until now, many scientific and technological problems associated with precipitation enhancement demand urgent solution. Hence, we have to improve the scientific and technological level. First of all, research in some critical technologies such as prediction of seeded clouds, indexes for selecting clouds, and optimization of seeding methods needs to be emphasized so as to reduce the degree of blindness to the utmost. In addition, the evaluation of weather modification attainments has been perplexing scientists without an ideal solution. Scientific reserves including understanding of basic cloud seeding technology, modern observational equipment, and hightech talent are not enough as well. At present, to make breakthrough in weather modification, we have to reform in terms of strategy and technology application and avoid following the old routine. Four critical technologies of developing precipitation enhancement are proposed in the present study, including conduct shorttime, local prediction of clouds and precipitation, having a good indexes to identify and selecting clouds suitable for rain enhancement, optimizing methods of artificial seeding, and conducting evaluation through control observations and comparative analysis scientifically.

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黄美元.2011.我国人工降水亟待解决的问题和发展思路[J].气候与环境研究,16(5):543-550. HUANG Meiyuan.2011. Urgent Problems and Thinking of Development for Precipitation Enhancement in China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],16(5):543-550.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2011-12-01
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