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1961~2007年青藏高原四季开始日期的变化趋势分析
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国家自然科学基金项目40875053,国家科技支撑计划项目2009BAC51B03,公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201006023


Analysis on Variation Trend of Season Start Dates over the Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2007
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    摘要:

    利用中国气象局国家气象信息中心提供的青藏高原60个测站1961~2007年逐日气温度资料,分析了青藏高原近47年来四季开始日期的时空变化特征和年代际变化趋势.结果表明,青藏高原的四季开始日期变化主要表现为春季和夏季的提前趋势,秋季和冬季的推后趋势,其中春季、冬季的变化显著,夏季、秋季的变化相对春季、冬季变化较小,四季开始日期的这种变化在增温明显的1990年代和21世纪初最为明显,并且春季和冬季开始日期的年代变化较大,而夏季和秋季开始日期的年际变化较大.这种变化趋势在空间分布上有所差异,春季和冬季开始日期变化的空间分布相似,春季和冬季开始日期的变化在空间上有相当的同步性而且都属于“中间高两边低”的分布状态,夏季和秋季开始日期变化的空间分布相似.此外,春季开始日期在1990年代之前整体相对平稳并没有表现出明显的提早趋势,从1990年代开始变得较明显;夏季开始日期的提早变化相对平稳但年际变化较大;秋季开始日期的推迟相对平稳但是年际变化较大,1990年代有较明显的推迟趋势;冬季在1990年代表现出推迟趋势但是并不明显,但是到21世纪初表现出强烈的推迟.

    Abstract:

    The variations in the trends for the start dates of the seasons in the Tibetan Plateau over 47 years (1961-2007) were analyzed using the daily temperature data of 1961-2007 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center, China Meteorological Administration. The results show that spring and summer are starting earlier while autumn and winter are starting later; the changes in autumn and summer were not as significant as those of spring and winter. This trend is most obvious in the 1990s and the beginning of the 21st century as the effect of global warming increases. This trend has different seasonal spatial distributions in the Tibetan Plateau; spring and winter have the same spatial distribution—larger changes in the central region than in the surrounding area summer and autumn are similar but different than spring and winter. Before the 1990s, the start date of spring showed little change, but the trend of earlier start date became obvious from the 1990s onward; the trend of earlier start date of summer is more stable than that of spring but the interannual variability is greater. The trend of the earlier start date of autumn is also more stable than that of spring with greater interannual variability; from the 1990s, the start date of autumn shows a more obvious delay trend than that of winter, while in the early phase of 21st century the delay trend is strong in winter.

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范思睿,范广洲,赖欣,朱丽华.2013.1961~2007年青藏高原四季开始日期的变化趋势分析[J].气候与环境研究,18(1):71-79. FAN Sirui, FAN Guangzhou, LAI Xin, ZHU Lihua.2013. Analysis on Variation Trend of Season Start Dates over the Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2007[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],18(1):71-79.

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  • 收稿日期:2011-04-14
  • 最后修改日期:2012-09-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2013-02-01
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